EUR/USD — 2026-06-25

Daily snapshot for EUR/USD on 2026-06-25: price level, daily change, moving averages, RSI(14), ATR, 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

=== EUR/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 1.13598  -0.173%   · RSI(14) 24.89 (1st pct, since 2003) while price < all MAs
     cross-signal: signals align EUR/USD down: RSI(14), 52wk position, 20d return, daily %
  price & change   (as of 2026-06-25, prior 2026-06-24)
    close       1.13598
    change      -0.00197  (-0.173%, -19.7 pips)
    gap         -0.00184  (-18.4 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-06-25)
    range       0.00259  (25.9 pips)
    close pos   40.2% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-06-25)
     20d MA     1.15441   price below by -1.60%
     50d MA     1.16364   price below by -2.38%
    200d MA     1.16671   price below by -2.63%
    price < all MAs
    stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
  volatility       (as of 2026-06-25)
    20d stdev   0.321% daily
  ATR              (as of 2026-06-25)
    ATR(14)    0.00657  (65.7 pips)
    ATR%        0.58%
    range/ATR   39.4%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-06-25)
    high        1.20236   (-5.52% from high)
    low         1.13254   (+0.30% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-06-25)
    RSI(14)     24.89
  returns          (as of 2026-06-25)
     5d return  -1.28%
    20d return  -2.22%
    60d return  -1.99%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       1.0543%
    ZIRP-2009        0.6640%
    tightening-2015  0.4886%
    ZIRP-2019        0.3870%
    tightening-2022  0.5496%
    easing-2024      0.4349%
  positioning      (as of 2026-06-16)  (predates 2026-06-17 FOMC)
    net         -8,926 contracts (net short EUR)
    net % OI    -1.0%
    net%OI range -7.8% … +6.5% (own 129w)
    w/w change  +8,462
  rate differential (US–EU policy)
    US (FEDFUNDS)   3.63%  (as of 2026-05-01)  (predates 2026-06-17 FOMC)
    next FOMC       2026-07-29  (34 days)
    EU (ECBMRRFR)   2.40%  (as of 2026-06-24)
    differential    withheld — US rate predates 2026-06-17 FOMC
  10Y yield spread (US–EU)
    US (DGS10)      4.50%  (as of 2026-06-23)
    EU (euro-area AAA 10Y) 2.94%  (as of 2026-06-24)
    spread          +1.56%
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-06-24)
    vs DXY      -0.84
    vs S&P 500  +0.34
    vs DXY beta -0.81 (26w)