On 2026-07-30, EUR/USD closed at 1.14672, up 0.71% on the day. It trades at 20.3% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 54.69 is in the 65th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +0.78% in the 64th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -7.1% of open interest, in the 5th percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.14173 / 1.14868 / 1.16307, with price +0.44% / -0.17% / -1.41% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.13254–1.20236; it closed 4.63% below the high and 1.25% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.277% daily, in the 7th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00593 (59.3 pips), 0.52% of price. It has returned +0.49% over 5 days and -2.39% over 60 days.
=== EUR/USD (pip 0.0001) ===
>> close 1.14672 +0.709% · positioning net%OI -7.1% (5th pct — near bottom of own 134w range (band bottoms at -7.8%))
cross-signal: flow signals align EUR/USD up: daily %, 20d return
price & change (as of 2026-07-30, prior 2026-07-29)
close 1.14672
change +0.00807 (+0.709%, +80.7 pips)
gap +0.00814 (+81.4 pips) (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
range (as of 2026-07-30)
range 0.00994 (99.4 pips)
close pos 32.0% of range
moving averages (as of 2026-07-30)
20d MA 1.14173 price above by +0.44%
50d MA 1.14868 price below by -0.17%
200d MA 1.16307 price below by -1.41%
price mixed vs MAs
stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
volatility (as of 2026-07-30)
20d stdev 0.277% daily ≈ 4.4% annualized (×√252) (7th pct of own history, since 2003 (5847 obs))
vs easing-2024 avg 0.65× (0.277% vs 0.430% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-07-30)
ATR(14) 0.00593 (59.3 pips)
ATR% 0.52% (8th pct of own history, since 2003 (5853 obs))
range/ATR 167.5%
52-week range (as of 2026-07-30)
high 1.20236 (-4.63% from high)
low 1.13254 (+1.25% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-07-30)
RSI(14) 54.69 (65th pct of own history, since 2003 (5853 obs))
returns (as of 2026-07-30)
5d return +0.49%
20d return +0.78%
60d return -2.39%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis 1.0543% (from 2003-12-01)
ZIRP-2009 0.6640%
tightening-2015 0.4886%
ZIRP-2019 0.3870%
tightening-2022 0.5496%
easing-2024 0.4298%
positioning (as of 2026-07-21) (predates 2026-07-29 FOMC)
next COT as of 2026-07-28 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net -56,671 contracts (net short EUR)
net % OI -7.1%
net%OI range -7.8% … +6.5% (own 134w)
w/w change -2,980
rate differential (EUR–USD policy)
EUR (ECB_DFR) 2.25% (set 2026-06-17, deposit-facility floor)
next ECB 2026-09-10 (42 days)
USD (EFFR) 3.63% (as of 2026-07-30, daily effective)
next Fed 2026-09-16 (48 days)
differential -1.38% (base−quote)
10Y yield spread (US–EU)
US (DGS10) 4.67% (as of 2026-07-29)
EU (euro-area AAA 10Y) 3.20% (as of 2026-07-30)
spread +1.47%
2Y yield spread (US–EU)
US (DGS2) 4.22% (as of 2026-07-29)
EU (euro-area AAA 2Y) 2.71% (as of 2026-07-30)
spread +1.51%
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-07-30)
vs DXY -0.81
vs S&P 500 +0.46
vs DXY beta -0.72 (26w)