USD/CAD: 20-day volatility 0.238% daily (5th pct)

On 2026-08-03, USD/CAD closed at 1.4013, up 0.01% on the day. It trades at 69.3% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 39.73 is in the 20th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -1.35% in the 25th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -27.5% of open interest, in the 17th percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.40961 / 1.40519 / 1.38549, with price -0.59% / -0.28% / +1.14% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.3484–1.42478; it closed 1.65% below the high and 3.92% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.238% daily, in the 5th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.0058 (58 pips), 0.41% of price. It has returned -0.52% over 5 days and +2.41% over 60 days.

=== USD/CAD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 1.40130  +0.013%   · 20d vol 0.238% daily (5th pct, since 2003 (5927 obs))
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-03, prior 2026-07-31)
    close       1.40130
    change      +0.00018  (+0.013%, +1.8 pips)
    gap         +0.00049  (+4.9 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-03)
    range       0.00456  (45.6 pips)
    close pos   21.9% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-03)
     20d MA     1.40961   price below by -0.59%
     50d MA     1.40519   price below by -0.28%
    200d MA     1.38549   price above by +1.14%
    price mixed vs MAs
    stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-03)
    20d stdev   0.238% daily ≈ 3.8% annualized (×√252)   (5th pct of own history, since 2003 (5927 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.73× (0.238% vs 0.327% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-03)
    ATR(14)    0.00580  (58.0 pips)
    ATR%        0.41%   (2nd pct of own history, since 2003 (5933 obs))
    range/ATR   78.6%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-03)
    high        1.42478   (-1.65% from high)
    low         1.34840   (+3.92% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-03)
    RSI(14)     39.73   (20th pct of own history, since 2003 (5933 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-03)
     5d return  -0.52%
    20d return  -1.35%
    60d return  +2.41%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.6422%   (from 2003-09-17)
    ZIRP-2009        0.5827%
    tightening-2015  0.4850%
    ZIRP-2019        0.4557%
    tightening-2022  0.4399%
    easing-2024      0.3269%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-28)  (predates 2026-07-29 FOMC)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-04 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -102,495 contracts (net short CAD; = long USD in USD/CAD terms)
    net % OI    -27.5%
    net%OI range -31.9% … -6.8% (own 135w)
    w/w change  -4,118
  rate differential (USD–CAD policy)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-07-31, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (44 days)
    CAD (BOC_TARGET)      2.25%  (as of 2026-07-31, announced target)
    next BoC              2026-09-02  (30 days)
    differential    +1.38%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-03)
    vs DXY      +0.46
    vs S&P 500  -0.29
    vs DXY beta +0.32 (26w)