On 2026-08-03, USD/JPY closed at 157.582, down 1.62% on the day. It trades at 64.0% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 24.36 is in the 1st percentile of its history since 1996, and its 20-day return of -2.40% in the 16th percentile. RSI below 30 is conventionally termed oversold. Leveraged-money positioning is net -23.6% of open interest, in the 23rd percentile of its own two-year range. It is trading below its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 162.385 / 161.352 / 157.928, with price -2.96% / -2.34% / -0.22% against them. Its 52-week range is 146.217–163.979; it closed 3.90% below the high and 7.77% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.608% daily, in the 59th percentile of its history since 1996. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 1.544 (154.4 pips), 0.98% of price. It has returned -3.68% over 5 days and +0.46% over 60 days.
=== USD/JPY (pip 0.01) ===
>> close 157.582 -1.624% · price < all MAs; RSI(14) 24.36 (1st pct, since 1996 (7692 obs))
cross-signal: flow signals align USD/JPY down: daily %, 20d return
price & change (as of 2026-08-03, prior 2026-07-31)
close 157.582
change -2.601 (-1.624%, -260.1 pips)
gap -2.485 (-248.5 pips) (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
range (as of 2026-08-03)
range 2.613 (261.3 pips)
close pos 89.0% of range
moving averages (as of 2026-08-03)
20d MA 162.385 price below by -2.96%
50d MA 161.352 price below by -2.34%
200d MA 157.928 price below by -0.22%
price < all MAs
stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
volatility (as of 2026-08-03)
20d stdev 0.608% daily ≈ 9.7% annualized (×√252) (59th pct of own history, since 1996 (7686 obs))
vs easing-2024 avg 1.02× (0.608% vs 0.597% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-08-03)
ATR(14) 1.544 (154.4 pips)
ATR% 0.98% (58th pct of own history, since 1996 (7692 obs))
range/ATR 169.3%
52-week range (as of 2026-08-03)
high 163.979 (-3.90% from high)
low 146.217 (+7.77% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-08-03)
RSI(14) 24.36 (1st pct of own history, since 1996 (7692 obs))
returns (as of 2026-08-03)
5d return -3.68%
20d return -2.40%
60d return +0.46%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis 0.8804% (from 1996-10-30)
ZIRP-2009 0.6396%
tightening-2015 0.5829%
ZIRP-2019 0.4159%
tightening-2022 0.6795%
easing-2024 0.5968%
positioning (as of 2026-07-28) (predates 2026-07-29 FOMC)
next COT as of 2026-08-04 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net -101,990 contracts (net short JPY; = long USD in USD/JPY terms)
net % OI -23.6%
net%OI range -33.5% … +10.5% (own 135w)
w/w change -5,805
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-08-03)
vs DXY +0.65
vs S&P 500 -0.18
vs DXY beta +0.81 (26w)