EUR/GBP: positioning +4.9%
On 2026-10-12, EUR/GBP closed at 0.84623, down 0.14% on the day. At the 2026-10-12 close, EUR/GBP was 3.4% of the way from its 52-week low to its high. At the 2026-10-12 close, EUR/GBP had an RSI(14) of 25.06, in the bottom 1% of its history since 1999, and its 20-day return of -1.27% was in the 23rd percentile. RSI below 30 is conventionally termed oversold. Leveraged-money positioning is net +4.9% of open interest, at 100% of its own two-year positioning range. It is trading below its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. At the 2026-10-12 close, the 20/50/200-day moving averages of EUR/GBP were 0.8545 / 0.85587 / 0.86282, with price -0.97% / -1.13% / -1.92% against them. At the 2026-10-12 close, the 52-week range of EUR/GBP was 0.84481–0.88653; it closed 4.55% below the high and 0.17% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.172% daily, in the 1st percentile of its history since 1999. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00298 (29.8 pips), 0.35% of price. It has returned -0.41% over 5 days and -0.43% over 60 days.
Figures reflect the latest daily snapshot for 2026-10-12.
=== EUR/GBP (pip 0.0001) ===
>> close 0.84623 -0.145% · price < all MAs; positioning net%OI +4.9% (near top of own 145w range (band tops at +4.9%))
cross-signal: flow signals align EUR/GBP down: 20d return, daily %
price & change (as of 2026-10-12, prior 2026-10-09)
close 0.84623
change -0.00123 (-0.145%, -12.3 pips)
gap -0.00252 (-25.2 pips) (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
range (as of 2026-10-12)
range 0.00163 (16.3 pips)
close pos 80.4% of range
moving averages (as of 2026-10-12)
20d MA 0.85450 price below by -0.97%
50d MA 0.85587 price below by -1.13%
200d MA 0.86282 price below by -1.92%
price < all MAs
stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
volatility (as of 2026-10-12)
20d stdev 0.172% daily ≈ 2.7% annualised (×√252) (1st pct of own history, since 1999 (7203 obs))
vs easing-2024 avg 0.66× (0.172% vs 0.263% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-10-12)
ATR(14) 0.00298 (29.8 pips)
ATR% 0.35% (2nd pct of own history, since 1999 (7209 obs))
range/ATR 54.6%
52-week range (as of 2026-10-12)
high 0.88653 (-4.55% from high)
low 0.84481 (+0.17% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-10-12)
RSI(14) 25.06 (0th pct of own history, since 1999 (7209 obs))
returns (as of 2026-10-12)
5d return -0.41%
20d return -1.27%
60d return -0.43%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis (through 2008) 0.50% (from 1999-01-04)
ZIRP (2009–2015) 0.55%
tightening (2015–2018) 0.56%
ZIRP (2019–2021) 0.47%
tightening (2022–2023) 0.80%
easing (2024– ) 0.26%
positioning (as of 2026-10-06)
next COT as of 2026-10-13 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net +2,004 contracts (net long EUR/GBP)
source standalone EUR/GBP cross future (own OI, not EUR/GBP majors)
net % OI +4.9%
net%OI range -53.5% … +4.9% (own 145w)
w/w change +479
rate differential (EUR–GBP policy)
EUR (ECB_DFR) 2.50% (set 2026-09-16, deposit-facility floor)
next ECB 2026-10-29 (17 days)
GBP (BOE_BANK_RATE) 3.75% (as of 2026-10-12, official Bank Rate)
next BoE 2026-11-05 (24 days)
differential -1.25% (base−quote)
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-10-12)
vs DXY +0.04
vs S&P 500 +0.06
vs DXY beta +0.02 (26w)