Japanese 10-Year yield: RSI, moving averages and 52-week range, each vs its own history
The Japanese 10-year yield fell 2.3 bp to 2.935% on 2026-10-19, the 66th percentile of its daily changes by size since 1986. It is 18 bp below its 52-week high and 128 bp above its 52-week low, and is above its 200-day moving average and below its 20- and 50-day moving averages. Its 20-day change of -9 bp is in the 23rd percentile of its history since 1986. The Japanese 10-year yield's RSI(14) was 39.14 on 2026-10-19, the 24th percentile of its history since 1986. On 2026-10-19, the Japanese 10-year yield's 52-week high was 3.111%, set on 2026-10-07, and the 52-week low 1.654%, set on 2025-10-28. On 2026-10-19, the Japanese 10-year yield's 20-day moving average was 3.041%. On 2026-10-19, the Japanese 10-year yield's 50-day moving average was 2.958%. On 2026-10-19, the Japanese 10-year yield's 200-day moving average was 2.568%.
Figures reflect the latest daily snapshot for 2026-10-19.
Yield and momentum
- Yield
- 2.935%
- Daily change
- -2.3 bp
- RSI (14)
- 39.14 — 24th percentile since 1986 (9946 obs)
- 20-day yield change
- -9 bp — 23rd percentile since 1986 (9940 obs)
Moving averages
| Period | Level | Yield vs MA |
|---|---|---|
| 20-day MA | 3.041% | -11 bp |
| 50-day MA | 2.958% | -2 bp |
| 200-day MA | 2.568% | +37 bp |
52-week range
- Position
- 87.9% of range
- 52-week high
- 3.111% · yield -18 bp
- 52-week low
- 1.654% · yield +128 bp
Yield chart
Volatility
- 20-day realised yield volatility
- 3.3 bp/day — 70th percentile since 1986 (9940 obs)
Yield changes
- 5-day
- -9 bp
- 60-day
- +22 bp
- 120-day
- +53 bp
- 252-day
- +126 bp
Spread to the US 10-Year Treasury (US minus Japanese): +221.5 bp as of 2026-10-19, +8.3 bp vs prior; 40th percentile of its own history, since 1986 (9532 obs).
Rules-based reading
A transparent, rules-based reading of the facts on this page. Each badge traces to a published rule and to the metrics shown. Reporting, not advice.
- Trend: Mixed vs moving averages
- Level: Mid-range by its own history
- Volatility: Normal
- 52-week position: High in range
- RSI: Neutral
What these badges mean
- Trend
- The yield is above some of its 20/50/200-day moving averages and below others. A position versus trend, not a direction to trade.
- Level
- The current yield is at the 74th percentile of this tenor's history since 1986. A level versus its own history — not itself high or low value, and not a direction.
- Volatility
- 20-day realised yield volatility at the 70th percentile of its own history since 1986. Higher = larger daily yield swings; a magnitude, not a direction.
- 52-week position
- The yield is at 87.9% of its 52-week range. A position within the range — not itself high or low value, and not a direction.
- RSI
- RSI(14) on the yield series is 39.14. Readings of 70 and above are stretched high (the yield has risen faster than it has fallen recently), below 30 stretched low (the reverse), and between them neutral. A momentum reading, not a recommendation.
Source and history
Source: Ministry of Finance Japan, JGB interest rates, under the Public Data License 1.0. The yields are the Ministry’s constant-maturity rates, read off its curve fitted to closing JSDA reference yields; every indicator on this page (changes, moving averages, ranges, volatility, RSI and their percentiles) is computed by mercatusdata from them, not by the Ministry.
From September 2016 to March 2024 the Bank of Japan’s yield-curve control held the 10-year yield near its target and a negative policy rate anchored the short end, so that stretch is unusually still. Percentiles rank today against a history that includes it, so ordinary moves today can rank high. Until 1989 Japanese markets also traded on Saturdays, so the early history has about six sessions a week.
Full daily summary
On 2026-10-19, the Japanese 10-year yield fell 2.3 bp to 2.935%. On 2026-10-19, the Japanese 10-year yield was 87.9% of the way from its 52-week low to its high. On 2026-10-19, the Japanese 10-year yield's RSI(14) of 39.14 was in the 24th percentile of its history since 1986, and its 20-day yield change of -9 bp in the 23rd percentile. On 2026-10-19, the Japanese 10-year yield's 20/50/200-day moving averages were 3.041% / 2.958% / 2.568%, with the yield -11 bp / -2 bp / +37 bp against them. On 2026-10-19, the Japanese 10-year yield's 52-week range was 1.654–3.111%; the yield is 18 bp below the 52-week high and 128 bp above the low. Its 20-day yield volatility is 3.3 bp/day, in the 70th percentile since 1986. Its yield has changed -9 bp over 5 days and +22 bp over 60 days.
Methodology
Full definitions for every metric on this page — how each is computed, over what window and on what basis — are on the methodology page. Bond metrics are defined in yield space: changes and distances in basis points, not percent.