FX Daily — 2026-07-01

FX daily report for reference date 2026-07-01. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT  (as of 2026-07-01, config order)

           close   day %    RSI (pct)   52wk  20d ret (pct)  pos net%OI (pct)
EUR/USD  1.14133  -0.08%  36.2 (12th)  12.6%  -1.80% (20th)      -2.0% (41st)
GBP/USD  1.32507  -0.03%  42.6 (26th)  28.6%  -1.51% (25th)      +2.5% (23rd)
USD/JPY  162.628  +0.43%  80.5 (99th)  98.8%  +1.66% (73rd)     -22.5% (25th)
USD/CHF   0.8087  +0.14%  64.8 (90th)  84.6%  +2.59% (88th)     -12.7% (41st)
AUD/USD   0.6913  +0.45%   32.9 (7th)  57.7%  -3.64% (10th)     +18.2% (82nd)
USD/CAD   1.4205  -0.03%  75.9 (99th)  94.4%  +2.60% (90th)     -24.3% (30th)
NZD/USD  0.56753  +0.42%  34.9 (11th)  17.9%   -4.17% (9th)      -22.1% (9th)
EUR/GBP  0.86133  -0.01%  41.4 (23rd)  13.9%  -0.28% (44th)      -6.3% (88th)
EUR/HUF  354.729  +0.52%  52.1 (59th)  11.9%  +0.25% (56th)
USD/HUF  311.114  +0.51%  57.6 (73rd)  21.6%  +2.13% (74th)
GBP/HUF   412.17  +0.64%  55.4 (67th)  14.9%  +0.66% (58th)
CHANGES (vs prior session)
  USD/JPY  new 52wk high (162.836)
  AUD/USD  RSI 32.9 — crossed above 30 (oversold boundary)
  NZD/USD  RSI 34.9 — crossed above 30 (oversold boundary)
  EUR/GBP  new 52wk low (0.85727)
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = distance from each pair's own median — a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — not a trading signal)
  USD/JPY  RSI(14) 80.51                (99th pct, since 1996)    · surprise  98
  USD/CAD  RSI(14) 75.87                (99th pct, since 2003)    · surprise  98
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-07-02)
  level       16.84
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-07-01)
  >> BoC   2026-07-15  (14 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (RSI(14) 99th pct)
  >> Fed   2026-07-29  (28 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (RSI(14) 99th pct), USD/CAD (RSI(14) 99th pct)
  >> BoJ   2026-07-31  (30 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (RSI(14) 99th pct)