USD/CAD: 20-day volatility 0.232% daily (4th pct)

On 2026-07-14, USD/CAD closed at 1.41494, down 0.10% on the day. It trades at 87.1% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 58.85 is in the 77th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +1.14% in the 72nd percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -23.6% of open interest, in the 33rd percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.41742 / 1.39538 / 1.38509, with price -0.17% / +1.40% / +2.16% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.3484–1.42478; it closed 0.69% below the high and 4.93% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.232% daily, in the 4th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00603 (60.3 pips), 0.43% of price. It has returned -0.41% over 5 days and +3.70% over 60 days.

=== USD/CAD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 1.41494  -0.099%   · 20d vol 0.232% daily (4th pct, since 2003 (5913 obs))
     cross-signal: flow signals split — 20d return up / daily % down
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-14, prior 2026-07-13)
    close       1.41494
    change      -0.00140  (-0.099%, -14.0 pips)
    gap         -0.00144  (-14.4 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-14)
    range       0.01060  (106.0 pips)
    close pos   96.3% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-14)
     20d MA     1.41742   price below by -0.17%
     50d MA     1.39538   price above by +1.40%
    200d MA     1.38509   price above by +2.16%
    price mixed vs MAs
    stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-14)
    20d stdev   0.232% daily ≈ 3.7% annualized (×√252)   (4th pct of own history, since 2003 (5913 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.71× (0.232% vs 0.328% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-14)
    ATR(14)    0.00603  (60.3 pips)
    ATR%        0.43%   (3rd pct of own history, since 2003 (5919 obs))
    range/ATR   175.9%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-14)
    high        1.42478   (-0.69% from high)
    low         1.34840   (+4.93% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-14)
    RSI(14)     58.85   (77th pct of own history, since 2003 (5919 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-14)
     5d return  -0.41%
    20d return  +1.14%
    60d return  +3.70%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.6422%   (from 2003-09-17)
    ZIRP-2009        0.5827%
    tightening-2015  0.4850%
    ZIRP-2019        0.4557%
    tightening-2022  0.4399%
    easing-2024      0.3278%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-07)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-14 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -85,957 contracts (net short CAD; = long USD in USD/CAD terms)
    net % OI    -23.6%
    net%OI range -31.9% … -6.8% (own 132w)
    w/w change  +2,144
  rate differential (USD–CAD policy)
    USD (EFFR)            3.62%  (as of 2026-07-13, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-07-29  (15 days)
    CAD (BOC_TARGET)      2.25%  (as of 2026-07-13, announced target)
    next BoC              2026-07-15  (1 day)
    differential    +1.37%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-14)
    vs DXY      +0.49
    vs S&P 500  -0.25
    vs DXY beta +0.44 (26w)