FX Daily — 2026-07-14

FX daily report for reference date 2026-07-14. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT  (as of 2026-07-14, config order)

           close   day %    RSI (pct)   52wk  20d ret (pct)  pos net%OI (pct)
EUR/USD  1.13843  -0.18%  38.0 (15th)   8.4%  -1.81% (20th)      -5.7% (14th)
GBP/USD  1.33479  -0.29%  50.5 (50th)  40.3%  -0.51% (41st)      +6.4% (34th)
USD/JPY  162.429  +0.34%  62.6 (82nd)  97.6%  +1.37% (69th)     -22.6% (25th)
USD/CHF  0.81473  +0.66%  67.3 (93rd)  95.8%  +2.56% (88th)      -6.7% (60th)
AUD/USD  0.69182  -0.35%  39.4 (19th)  58.3%  -2.19% (20th)     +14.5% (74th)
USD/CAD  1.41494  -0.10%  58.9 (77th)  87.1%  +1.14% (72nd)     -23.6% (33rd)
NZD/USD  0.57634  +0.08%  53.3 (60th)  35.2%  -1.11% (36th)      -24.0% (6th)
EUR/GBP  0.85272  +0.10%   28.6 (2nd)   5.1%  -1.31% (22nd)      -1.2% (97th)
EUR/HUF  358.067  +0.46%  60.4 (81st)  18.4%  +2.29% (88th)
USD/HUF  314.402  +0.65%  61.7 (83rd)  28.0%  +4.23% (89th)
GBP/HUF   419.89  +0.43%  65.3 (91st)  27.5%  +3.64% (90th)
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal)
  EUR/GBP  RSI(14) 28.60                (2nd pct, since 1999 (7145 obs)) · surprise  96
  USD/JPY  52wk position 97.6% of range (52wk)                    · surprise  95
  USD/CAD  20d vol 0.232% daily         (4th pct, since 2003 (5913 obs)) · surprise  92
  USD/CHF  52wk position 95.8% of range (52wk)                    · surprise  92
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-07-14)
  level       16.50
  change      -0.66  (-3.8%)  (prior 2026-07-13)
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
  1yr pctile  38th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY)  (as of 2026-07-14)  (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below)
  level       100.789
  change      -0.491  (-0.48%)  (prior 2026-07-13)
  1yr range   96.220 … 101.610 (252d)
  1yr pctile  93rd pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     98.973   price above by +1.83%
equity market (S&P 500)  (as of 2026-07-14)
  level       7543.59
  change      +28.25  (+0.38%)  (prior 2026-07-13)
  1yr range   6238.01 … 7609.78 (252d)
  1yr pctile  96th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     6973.96   price above by +8.17%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-07-14)
  >> BoC   2026-07-15  (1 day)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (20d vol 4th pct)
  >> ECB   2026-07-23  (9 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 2nd pct)
  >> Fed   2026-07-29  (15 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (52wk position 97.6% of range), USD/CHF (52wk position 95.8% of range), USD/CAD (20d vol 4th pct)
  >> BoE   2026-07-30  (16 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 2nd pct)
  >> BoJ   2026-07-31  (17 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (52wk position 97.6% of range)
  >> SNB   2026-09-24  (72 days)   · cross-link: USD/CHF (52wk position 95.8% of range)