On 2026-07-14, EUR/USD closed at 1.13843, down 0.18% on the day. It trades at 8.4% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 37.95 is in the 15th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -1.81% in the 20th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -5.7% of open interest, in the 14th percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.14255 / 1.1554 / 1.16442, with price -0.36% / -1.47% / -2.23% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.13254–1.20236; it closed 5.32% below the high and 0.52% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.308% daily, in the 11th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00622 (62.2 pips), 0.55% of price. It has returned -0.50% over 5 days and -3.40% over 60 days.
=== EUR/USD (pip 0.0001) ===
>> close 1.13843 -0.177%
price & change (as of 2026-07-14, prior 2026-07-13)
close 1.13843
change -0.00202 (-0.177%, -20.2 pips)
gap -0.00208 (-20.8 pips) (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
range (as of 2026-07-14)
range 0.00825 (82.5 pips)
close pos 6.7% of range
moving averages (as of 2026-07-14)
20d MA 1.14255 price below by -0.36%
50d MA 1.15540 price below by -1.47%
200d MA 1.16442 price below by -2.23%
price < all MAs
stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
volatility (as of 2026-07-14)
20d stdev 0.308% daily ≈ 4.9% annualized (×√252) (11th pct of own history, since 2003 (5835 obs))
vs easing-2024 avg 0.71× (0.308% vs 0.432% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-07-14)
ATR(14) 0.00622 (62.2 pips)
ATR% 0.55% (11th pct of own history, since 2003 (5841 obs))
range/ATR 132.7%
52-week range (as of 2026-07-14)
high 1.20236 (-5.32% from high)
low 1.13254 (+0.52% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-07-14)
RSI(14) 37.95 (15th pct of own history, since 2003 (5841 obs))
returns (as of 2026-07-14)
5d return -0.50%
20d return -1.81%
60d return -3.40%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis 1.0543% (from 2003-12-01)
ZIRP-2009 0.6640%
tightening-2015 0.4886%
ZIRP-2019 0.3870%
tightening-2022 0.5496%
easing-2024 0.4318%
positioning (as of 2026-07-07)
next COT as of 2026-07-14 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net -45,461 contracts (net short EUR)
net % OI -5.7%
net%OI range -7.8% … +6.5% (own 132w)
w/w change -12,817
rate differential (EUR–USD policy)
EUR (ECB_DFR) 2.25% (set 2026-06-17, deposit-facility floor)
next ECB 2026-07-23 (9 days)
USD (EFFR) 3.62% (as of 2026-07-13, daily effective)
next Fed 2026-07-29 (15 days)
differential -1.37% (base−quote)
10Y yield spread (US–EU)
US (DGS10) 4.62% (as of 2026-07-13)
EU (euro-area AAA 10Y) 3.12% (as of 2026-07-13)
spread +1.50%
2Y yield spread (US–EU)
US (DGS2) 4.26% (as of 2026-07-13)
EU (euro-area AAA 2Y) 2.64% (as of 2026-07-13)
spread +1.62%
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-07-14)
vs DXY -0.79
vs S&P 500 +0.39
vs DXY beta -0.78 (26w)