On 2026-07-15, EUR/USD closed at 1.14247, up 0.35% on the day. It trades at 14.2% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 44.82 is in the 34th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -1.60% in the 22nd percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -5.7% of open interest, in the 14th percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.14162 / 1.15482 / 1.16428, with price +0.07% / -1.07% / -1.87% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.13254–1.20236; it closed 4.98% below the high and 0.88% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.320% daily, in the 12th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00621 (62.1 pips), 0.54% of price. It has returned +0.18% over 5 days and -2.72% over 60 days.
=== EUR/USD (pip 0.0001) ===
>> close 1.14247 +0.355%
price & change (as of 2026-07-15, prior 2026-07-14)
close 1.14247
change +0.00404 (+0.355%, +40.4 pips)
gap +0.00411 (+41.1 pips) (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
range (as of 2026-07-15)
range 0.00391 (39.1 pips)
close pos 46.5% of range
moving averages (as of 2026-07-15)
20d MA 1.14162 price above by +0.07%
50d MA 1.15482 price below by -1.07%
200d MA 1.16428 price below by -1.87%
price mixed vs MAs
stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
volatility (as of 2026-07-15)
20d stdev 0.320% daily ≈ 5.1% annualized (×√252) (12th pct of own history, since 2003 (5836 obs))
vs easing-2024 avg 0.74× (0.320% vs 0.432% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-07-15)
ATR(14) 0.00621 (62.1 pips)
ATR% 0.54% (11th pct of own history, since 2003 (5842 obs))
range/ATR 62.9%
52-week range (as of 2026-07-15)
high 1.20236 (-4.98% from high)
low 1.13254 (+0.88% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-07-15)
RSI(14) 44.82 (34th pct of own history, since 2003 (5842 obs))
returns (as of 2026-07-15)
5d return +0.18%
20d return -1.60%
60d return -2.72%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis 1.0543% (from 2003-12-01)
ZIRP-2009 0.6640%
tightening-2015 0.4886%
ZIRP-2019 0.3870%
tightening-2022 0.5496%
easing-2024 0.4317%
positioning (as of 2026-07-07)
next COT as of 2026-07-14 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net -45,461 contracts (net short EUR)
net % OI -5.7%
net%OI range -7.8% … +6.5% (own 132w)
w/w change -12,817
rate differential (EUR–USD policy)
EUR (ECB_DFR) 2.25% (set 2026-06-17, deposit-facility floor)
next ECB 2026-07-23 (8 days)
USD (EFFR) 3.63% (as of 2026-07-15, daily effective)
next Fed 2026-07-29 (14 days)
differential -1.38% (base−quote)
10Y yield spread (US–EU)
US (DGS10) 4.58% (as of 2026-07-14)
EU (euro-area AAA 10Y) 3.15% (as of 2026-07-15)
spread +1.43%
2Y yield spread (US–EU)
US (DGS2) 4.18% (as of 2026-07-14)
EU (euro-area AAA 2Y) 2.68% (as of 2026-07-15)
spread +1.50%
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-07-15)
vs DXY -0.80
vs S&P 500 +0.38
vs DXY beta -0.78 (26w)