FX Daily — 2026-07-15

FX daily report for reference date 2026-07-15. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT  (as of 2026-07-15, config order)

           close   day %    RSI (pct)   52wk  20d ret (pct)  pos net%OI (pct)
EUR/USD  1.14247  +0.35%  44.8 (34th)  14.2%  -1.60% (22nd)      -5.7% (14th)
GBP/USD  1.33971  +0.37%  55.2 (66th)  46.2%  -0.22% (46th)      +6.4% (34th)
USD/JPY  162.187  -0.15%  59.1 (73rd)  96.1%  +1.10% (65th)     -22.6% (25th)
USD/CHF  0.80906  -0.70%  57.0 (73rd)  85.3%  +2.01% (82nd)      -6.7% (60th)
AUD/USD  0.69765  +0.84%  50.2 (49th)  65.1%  -1.26% (31st)     +14.5% (74th)
USD/CAD  1.40515  -0.69%  42.3 (26th)  74.3%  +0.40% (58th)     -23.6% (33rd)
NZD/USD  0.58135  +0.87%  60.7 (80th)  45.0%  -0.30% (45th)      -24.0% (6th)
EUR/GBP  0.85274  +0.00%   28.7 (2nd)  14.3%  -1.39% (21st)      -1.2% (97th)
EUR/HUF  358.292  +0.06%  61.0 (83rd)  18.8%  +2.82% (92nd)
USD/HUF  313.517  -0.28%  59.1 (77th)  26.3%  +4.33% (90th)
GBP/HUF   420.14  +0.06%  65.7 (92nd)  27.9%  +4.21% (93rd)
CHANGES (vs prior session)
  EUR/GBP  new 52wk intraday low (0.84708)
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal)
  EUR/GBP  RSI(14) 28.70                (2nd pct, since 1999 (7146 obs)) · surprise  96
  USD/JPY  20d vol 0.256% daily         (3rd pct, since 1996 (7673 obs)) · surprise  94
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-07-15)
  level       15.67
  change      -0.83  (-5.0%)  (prior 2026-07-14)
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
  1yr pctile  20th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY)  (as of 2026-07-15)  (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below)
  level       100.500
  change      -0.440  (-0.44%)  (prior 2026-07-14)
  1yr range   96.220 … 101.610 (252d)
  1yr pctile  93rd pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     98.983   price above by +1.53%
equity market (S&P 500)  (as of 2026-07-15)
  level       7572.40
  change      +28.81  (+0.38%)  (prior 2026-07-14)
  1yr range   6238.01 … 7609.78 (252d)
  1yr pctile  98th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     6978.80   price above by +8.51%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-07-15)
  >> ECB   2026-07-23  (8 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 2nd pct)
  >> Fed   2026-07-29  (14 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (20d vol 3rd pct)
  >> BoE   2026-07-30  (15 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 2nd pct)
  >> BoJ   2026-07-31  (16 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (20d vol 3rd pct)