USD/JPY: 20-day volatility 0.256% daily (3rd pct)

On 2026-07-15, USD/JPY closed at 162.187, down 0.15% on the day. It trades at 96.1% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 59.06 is in the 73rd percentile of its history since 1996, and its 20-day return of +1.10% in the 65th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -22.6% of open interest, in the 25th percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 161.884 / 160.213 / 157.223, with price +0.19% / +1.23% / +3.16% against them. Its 52-week range is 146.217–162.836; it closed 0.40% below the high and 10.92% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.256% daily, in the 3rd percentile of its history since 1996. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.73 (73 pips), 0.45% of price. It has returned -0.11% over 5 days and +1.77% over 60 days.

=== USD/JPY  (pip 0.01) ===
  >> close 162.187  -0.149%   · 20d vol 0.256% daily (3rd pct, since 1996 (7673 obs))
     cross-signal: flow signals split — 20d return up / daily % down
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-15, prior 2026-07-14)
    close       162.187
    change      -0.242  (-0.149%, -24.2 pips)
    gap         -0.242  (-24.2 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-15)
    range       0.448  (44.8 pips)
    close pos   49.1% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-15)
     20d MA     161.884   price above by +0.19%
     50d MA     160.213   price above by +1.23%
    200d MA     157.223   price above by +3.16%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-15)
    20d stdev   0.256% daily ≈ 4.1% annualized (×√252)   (3rd pct of own history, since 1996 (7673 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.43× (0.256% vs 0.594% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-15)
    ATR(14)    0.730  (73.0 pips)
    ATR%        0.45%   (1st pct of own history, since 1996 (7679 obs))
    range/ATR   61.4%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-15)
    high        162.836   (-0.40% from high)
    low         146.217   (+10.92% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-15)
    RSI(14)     59.06   (73rd pct of own history, since 1996 (7679 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-15)
     5d return  -0.11%
    20d return  +1.10%
    60d return  +1.77%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.8804%   (from 1996-10-30)
    ZIRP-2009        0.6396%
    tightening-2015  0.5829%
    ZIRP-2019        0.4159%
    tightening-2022  0.6795%
    easing-2024      0.5937%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-07)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-14 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -90,083 contracts (net short JPY; = long USD in USD/JPY terms)
    net % OI    -22.6%
    net%OI range -33.5% … +10.5% (own 132w)
    w/w change  +25,317
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-15)
    vs DXY      +0.54
    vs S&P 500  -0.10
    vs DXY beta +0.75 (26w)