USD/JPY: 20-day volatility 0.257% daily (3rd pct)

On 2026-07-16, USD/JPY closed at 162.072, down 0.07% on the day. It trades at 95.4% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 57.42 is in the 69th percentile of its history since 1996, and its 20-day return of +0.92% in the 62nd percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -22.6% of open interest, in the 25th percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 161.958 / 160.325 / 157.282, with price +0.07% / +1.09% / +3.05% against them. Its 52-week range is 146.217–162.836; it closed 0.47% below the high and 10.84% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.257% daily, in the 3rd percentile of its history since 1996. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.713 (71.3 pips), 0.44% of price. It has returned -0.29% over 5 days and +1.62% over 60 days.

=== USD/JPY  (pip 0.01) ===
  >> close 162.072  -0.071%   · 20d vol 0.257% daily (3rd pct, since 1996 (7674 obs))
     cross-signal: flow signals split — 20d return up / daily % down
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-16, prior 2026-07-15)
    close       162.072
    change      -0.115  (-0.071%, -11.5 pips)
    gap         -0.103  (-10.3 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-16)
    range       0.489  (48.9 pips)
    close pos   18.8% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-16)
     20d MA     161.958   price above by +0.07%
     50d MA     160.325   price above by +1.09%
    200d MA     157.282   price above by +3.05%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-16)
    20d stdev   0.257% daily ≈ 4.1% annualized (×√252)   (3rd pct of own history, since 1996 (7674 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.43× (0.257% vs 0.593% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-16)
    ATR(14)    0.713  (71.3 pips)
    ATR%        0.44%   (1st pct of own history, since 1996 (7680 obs))
    range/ATR   68.6%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-16)
    high        162.836   (-0.47% from high)
    low         146.217   (+10.84% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-16)
    RSI(14)     57.42   (69th pct of own history, since 1996 (7680 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-16)
     5d return  -0.29%
    20d return  +0.92%
    60d return  +1.62%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.8804%   (from 1996-10-30)
    ZIRP-2009        0.6396%
    tightening-2015  0.5829%
    ZIRP-2019        0.4159%
    tightening-2022  0.6795%
    easing-2024      0.5933%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-07)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-14 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -90,083 contracts (net short JPY; = long USD in USD/JPY terms)
    net % OI    -22.6%
    net%OI range -33.5% … +10.5% (own 132w)
    w/w change  +25,317
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-16)
    vs DXY      +0.54
    vs S&P 500  -0.10
    vs DXY beta +0.75 (26w)