FX Daily — 2026-07-16

FX daily report for reference date 2026-07-16. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT  (as of 2026-07-16, config order)

           close   day %    RSI (pct)   52wk  20d ret (pct)  pos net%OI (pct)
EUR/USD  1.14703  +0.40%  51.4 (54th)  20.8%  -0.32% (45th)      -5.7% (14th)
GBP/USD  1.35413  +1.08%  65.5 (91st)  63.4%  +1.81% (79th)      +6.4% (34th)
USD/JPY  162.072  -0.07%  57.4 (69th)  95.4%  +0.92% (62nd)     -22.6% (25th)
USD/CHF  0.80466  -0.54%  50.6 (55th)  77.1%  +0.66% (63rd)      -6.7% (60th)
AUD/USD  0.70081  +0.45%  54.9 (64th)  68.8%  -0.15% (47th)     +14.5% (74th)
USD/CAD  1.40371  -0.10%  40.5 (22nd)  72.4%  -0.44% (40th)     -23.6% (33rd)
NZD/USD  0.58478  +0.59%  64.8 (89th)  51.8%  +1.26% (66th)      -24.0% (6th)
EUR/GBP  0.84694  -0.68%   20.1 (0th)   0.4%  -2.10% (11th)      -1.2% (97th)
EUR/HUF  358.835  +0.15%  62.3 (85th)  19.9%  +2.32% (88th)
USD/HUF   313.14  -0.12%  58.0 (74th)  25.6%  +2.82% (81st)
GBP/HUF   423.57  +0.82%  70.6 (97th)  33.4%  +4.49% (94th)
CHANGES (vs prior session)
  GBP/USD  crossed above 200d MA (2nd consecutive close above)
  EUR/GBP  new 52wk intraday low (0.84680)
  GBP/HUF  RSI 70.6 — crossed above 70 (overbought boundary)
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal)
  EUR/GBP  RSI(14) 20.12                (0th pct, since 1999 (7147 obs)) · surprise 100
  GBP/HUF  RSI(14) 70.58                (97th pct, since 2003 (5847 obs)) · surprise  94
  USD/JPY  20d vol 0.257% daily         (3rd pct, since 1996 (7674 obs)) · surprise  94
  USD/CAD  20d vol 0.231% daily         (4th pct, since 2003 (5915 obs)) · surprise  92
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-07-16)
  level       16.73
  change      +1.06  (+6.8%)  (prior 2026-07-15)
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
  1yr pctile  44th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY)  (as of 2026-07-16)  (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below)
  level       100.752
  change      +0.252  (+0.25%)  (prior 2026-07-15)
  1yr range   96.220 … 101.610 (252d)
  1yr pctile  93rd pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     98.996   price above by +1.77%
equity market (S&P 500)  (as of 2026-07-16)
  level       7533.77
  change      -38.63  (-0.51%)  (prior 2026-07-15)
  1yr range   6238.01 … 7609.78 (252d)
  1yr pctile  95th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     6983.25   price above by +7.88%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-07-16)
  >> ECB   2026-07-23  (7 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 0th pct)
  >> Fed   2026-07-29  (13 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (20d vol 3rd pct), USD/CAD (20d vol 4th pct)
  >> BoE   2026-07-30  (14 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 0th pct), GBP/HUF (RSI(14) 97th pct)
  >> BoJ   2026-07-31  (15 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (20d vol 3rd pct)
  >> BoC   2026-09-02  (48 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (20d vol 4th pct)