USD/CAD: 20-day volatility 0.231% daily (4th pct)

On 2026-07-16, USD/CAD closed at 1.40371, down 0.10% on the day. It trades at 72.4% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 40.48 is in the 22nd percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -0.44% in the 40th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -23.6% of open interest, in the 33rd percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.41738 / 1.39707 / 1.38518, with price -0.96% / +0.47% / +1.34% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.3484–1.42478; it closed 1.48% below the high and 4.10% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.231% daily, in the 4th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00624 (62.4 pips), 0.44% of price. It has returned -0.92% over 5 days and +2.69% over 60 days.

=== USD/CAD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 1.40371  -0.102%   · 20d vol 0.231% daily (4th pct, since 2003 (5915 obs))
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-16, prior 2026-07-15)
    close       1.40371
    change      -0.00144  (-0.102%, -14.4 pips)
    gap         -0.00166  (-16.6 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-16)
    range       0.00429  (42.9 pips)
    close pos   63.2% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-16)
     20d MA     1.41738   price below by -0.96%
     50d MA     1.39707   price above by +0.47%
    200d MA     1.38518   price above by +1.34%
    price mixed vs MAs
    stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-16)
    20d stdev   0.231% daily ≈ 3.7% annualized (×√252)   (4th pct of own history, since 2003 (5915 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.70× (0.231% vs 0.328% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-16)
    ATR(14)    0.00624  (62.4 pips)
    ATR%        0.44%   (4th pct of own history, since 2003 (5921 obs))
    range/ATR   68.7%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-16)
    high        1.42478   (-1.48% from high)
    low         1.34840   (+4.10% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-16)
    RSI(14)     40.48   (22nd pct of own history, since 2003 (5921 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-16)
     5d return  -0.92%
    20d return  -0.44%
    60d return  +2.69%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.6422%   (from 2003-09-17)
    ZIRP-2009        0.5827%
    tightening-2015  0.4850%
    ZIRP-2019        0.4557%
    tightening-2022  0.4399%
    easing-2024      0.3285%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-07)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-14 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -85,957 contracts (net short CAD; = long USD in USD/CAD terms)
    net % OI    -23.6%
    net%OI range -31.9% … -6.8% (own 132w)
    w/w change  +2,144
  rate differential (USD–CAD policy)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-07-15, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-07-29  (13 days)
    CAD (BOC_TARGET)      2.25%  (as of 2026-07-15, announced target)
    next BoC              2026-09-02  (48 days)
    differential    +1.38%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-16)
    vs DXY      +0.49
    vs S&P 500  -0.22
    vs DXY beta +0.45 (26w)