USD/CAD: 20-day volatility 0.210% daily (2nd pct)

On 2026-07-20, USD/CAD closed at 1.40191, down 0.13% on the day. It trades at 70.1% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 38.12 is in the 17th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -1.09% in the 29th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -25.2% of open interest, in the 27th percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.41609 / 1.3985 / 1.38525, with price -1.00% / +0.24% / +1.20% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.3484–1.42478; it closed 1.61% below the high and 3.97% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.210% daily, in the 2nd percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00608 (60.8 pips), 0.43% of price. It has returned -1.02% over 5 days and +2.51% over 60 days.

=== USD/CAD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 1.40191  -0.128%   · 20d vol 0.210% daily (2nd pct, since 2003 (5917 obs))
     cross-signal: flow signals align USD/CAD down: 20d return, daily %
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-20, prior 2026-07-17)
    close       1.40191
    change      -0.00179  (-0.128%, -17.9 pips)
    gap         -0.00177  (-17.7 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-20)
    range       0.00641  (64.1 pips)
    close pos   28.2% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-20)
     20d MA     1.41609   price below by -1.00%
     50d MA     1.39850   price above by +0.24%
    200d MA     1.38525   price above by +1.20%
    price mixed vs MAs
    stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-20)
    20d stdev   0.210% daily ≈ 3.3% annualized (×√252)   (2nd pct of own history, since 2003 (5917 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.64× (0.210% vs 0.328% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-20)
    ATR(14)    0.00608  (60.8 pips)
    ATR%        0.43%   (3rd pct of own history, since 2003 (5923 obs))
    range/ATR   105.5%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-20)
    high        1.42478   (-1.61% from high)
    low         1.34840   (+3.97% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-20)
    RSI(14)     38.12   (17th pct of own history, since 2003 (5923 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-20)
     5d return  -1.02%
    20d return  -1.09%
    60d return  +2.51%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.6422%   (from 2003-09-17)
    ZIRP-2009        0.5827%
    tightening-2015  0.4850%
    ZIRP-2019        0.4557%
    tightening-2022  0.4399%
    easing-2024      0.3280%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-14)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-21 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -92,771 contracts (net short CAD; = long USD in USD/CAD terms)
    net % OI    -25.2%
    net%OI range -31.9% … -6.8% (own 133w)
    w/w change  -6,814
  rate differential (USD–CAD policy)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-07-20, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-07-29  (9 days)
    CAD (BOC_TARGET)      2.25%  (as of 2026-07-20, announced target)
    next BoC              2026-09-02  (44 days)
    differential    +1.38%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-20)
    vs DXY      +0.45
    vs S&P 500  -0.21
    vs DXY beta +0.46 (26w)