FX Daily — 2026-07-20

FX daily report for reference date 2026-07-20. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT  (as of 2026-07-20, config order)

           close   day %    RSI (pct)   52wk  20d ret (pct)  pos net%OI (pct)
EUR/USD  1.14277  -0.15%  45.7 (37th)  14.7%  -0.31% (45th)       -6.7% (8th)
GBP/USD  1.34463  -0.24%  56.1 (69th)  52.0%  +1.80% (79th)     +10.8% (47th)
USD/JPY  162.512  +0.08%  61.9 (81st)  98.1%  +0.67% (58th)     -22.8% (24th)
USD/CHF  0.80842  +0.01%  55.3 (69th)  84.1%  +0.06% (53rd)      -8.8% (54th)
AUD/USD  0.69791  -0.29%  50.0 (48th)  65.4%  -0.34% (44th)     +13.1% (72nd)
USD/CAD  1.40191  -0.13%  38.1 (17th)  70.1%  -1.09% (29th)     -25.2% (27th)
NZD/USD    0.584  -0.03%  63.1 (86th)  50.2%  +1.84% (73rd)      -24.5% (5th)
EUR/GBP  0.84987  +0.08%   31.5 (4th)   7.7%  -2.07% (11th)      -1.4% (97th)
EUR/HUF  362.764  +0.29%  70.1 (96th)  27.4%  +3.51% (95th)
USD/HUF  317.729  +0.65%  66.5 (91st)  34.5%  +3.72% (87th)
GBP/HUF   427.05  +0.26%  74.6 (99th)  39.1%  +5.56% (97th)
CHANGES (vs prior session)
  EUR/GBP  RSI 31.5 — crossed above 30 (oversold boundary)
  EUR/HUF  RSI 70.1 — crossed above 70 (overbought boundary)
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal)
  GBP/HUF  RSI(14) 74.61                (99th pct, since 2003 (5849 obs)) · surprise  98
  USD/JPY  52wk position 98.1% of range (52wk)                    · surprise  96
  USD/CAD  20d vol 0.210% daily         (2nd pct, since 2003 (5917 obs)) · surprise  96
  EUR/GBP  positioning net%OI -1.4%     (97th pct — near top of own 133w range (band tops at +0.1%)) · surprise  94
  EUR/HUF  RSI(14) 70.12                (96th pct, since 2003 (5846 obs)) · surprise  92
  NZD/USD  positioning net%OI -24.5%    (5th pct — near bottom of own 133w range (band bottoms at -27.1%)) · surprise  90
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-07-20)
  level       18.65
  change      -0.12  (-0.6%)  (prior 2026-07-17)
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
  1yr pctile  70th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY)  (as of 2026-07-20)  (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below)
  level       100.990
  change      +0.240  (+0.24%)  (prior 2026-07-17)
  1yr range   96.220 … 101.610 (252d)
  1yr pctile  95th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     99.027   price above by +1.98%
equity market (S&P 500)  (as of 2026-07-20)
  level       7443.28
  change      -14.41  (-0.19%)  (prior 2026-07-17)
  1yr range   6238.01 … 7609.78 (252d)
  1yr pctile  88th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     6991.00   price above by +6.47%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-07-20)
  >> ECB   2026-07-23  (3 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI 97th pct — near top of own 133w range (band tops at +0.1%)), EUR/HUF (RSI(14) 96th pct)
  >> Fed   2026-07-29  (9 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (52wk position 98.1% of range), USD/CAD (20d vol 2nd pct), NZD/USD (positioning net%OI 5th pct — near bottom of own 133w range (band bottoms at -27.1%))
  >> BoE   2026-07-30  (10 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI 97th pct — near top of own 133w range (band tops at +0.1%)), GBP/HUF (RSI(14) 99th pct)
  >> BoJ   2026-07-31  (11 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (52wk position 98.1% of range)
  >> BoC   2026-09-02  (44 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (20d vol 2nd pct)
  >> RBNZ  2026-09-02  (44 days)   · cross-link: NZD/USD (positioning net%OI 5th pct — near bottom of own 133w range (band bottoms at -27.1%))