NZD/USD: positioning -24.5% (5th pct)

On 2026-07-20, NZD/USD closed at 0.584, down 0.03% on the day. It trades at 50.2% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 63.14 is in the 86th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +1.84% in the 73rd percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -24.5% of open interest, in the 5th percentile of its own two-year range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.57214 / 0.58056 / 0.58198, with price +2.07% / +0.59% / +0.35% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.55842–0.60933; it closed 4.16% below the high and 4.58% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.437% daily, in the 9th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00499 (49.9 pips), 0.85% of price. It has returned +1.41% over 5 days and -0.53% over 60 days.

=== NZD/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.58400  -0.031%   · price > all MAs; positioning net%OI -24.5% (5th pct — near bottom of own 133w range (band bottoms at -27.1%))
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-20, prior 2026-07-17)
    close       0.58400
    change      -0.00018  (-0.031%, -1.8 pips)
    gap         -0.00037  (-3.7 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-20)
    range       0.00253  (25.3 pips)
    close pos   7.9% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-20)
     20d MA     0.57214   price above by +2.07%
     50d MA     0.58056   price above by +0.59%
    200d MA     0.58198   price above by +0.35%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-20)
    20d stdev   0.437% daily ≈ 6.9% annualized (×√252)   (9th pct of own history, since 2003 (5833 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.73× (0.437% vs 0.596% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-20)
    ATR(14)    0.00499  (49.9 pips)
    ATR%        0.85%   (20th pct of own history, since 2003 (5839 obs))
    range/ATR   50.7%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-20)
    high        0.60933   (-4.16% from high)
    low         0.55842   (+4.58% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-20)
    RSI(14)     63.14   (86th pct of own history, since 2003 (5839 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-20)
     5d return  +1.41%
    20d return  +1.84%
    60d return  -0.53%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.9269%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.8375%
    tightening-2015  0.6352%
    ZIRP-2019        0.6132%
    tightening-2022  0.7299%
    easing-2024      0.5961%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-14)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-21 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -29,002 contracts (net short NZD)
    net % OI    -24.5%
    net%OI range -27.1% … +28.5% (own 133w)
    w/w change  -1,801
  rate differential (NZD–USD policy)
    NZD (RBNZ_OCR)        2.50%  (set 2026-07-08, announced target)
    next RBNZ             2026-09-02  (44 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-07-20, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-07-29  (9 days)
    differential    -1.13%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-20)
    vs DXY      -0.73
    vs S&P 500  +0.40
    vs DXY beta -1.22 (26w)