NZD/USD: positioning -24.5% (5th pct)

On 2026-07-21, NZD/USD closed at 0.58529, up 0.22% on the day. It trades at 52.8% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 64.82 is in the 89th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +2.47% in the 79th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -24.5% of open interest, in the 5th percentile of its own two-year range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.57284 / 0.58033 / 0.58203, with price +2.17% / +0.85% / +0.56% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.55842–0.60933; it closed 3.95% below the high and 4.81% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.422% daily, in the 7th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00498 (49.8 pips), 0.85% of price. It has returned +1.55% over 5 days and -1.01% over 60 days.

=== NZD/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.58529  +0.221%   · price > all MAs; positioning net%OI -24.5% (5th pct — near bottom of own 133w range (band bottoms at -27.1%))
     cross-signal: flow signals align NZD/USD up: 20d return, daily %
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-21, prior 2026-07-20)
    close       0.58529
    change      +0.00129  (+0.221%, +12.9 pips)
    gap         +0.00131  (+13.1 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-21)
    range       0.00489  (48.9 pips)
    close pos   58.3% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-21)
     20d MA     0.57284   price above by +2.17%
     50d MA     0.58033   price above by +0.85%
    200d MA     0.58203   price above by +0.56%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-21)
    20d stdev   0.422% daily ≈ 6.7% annualized (×√252)   (7th pct of own history, since 2003 (5834 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.71× (0.422% vs 0.596% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-21)
    ATR(14)    0.00498  (49.8 pips)
    ATR%        0.85%   (20th pct of own history, since 2003 (5840 obs))
    range/ATR   98.2%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-21)
    high        0.60933   (-3.95% from high)
    low         0.55842   (+4.81% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-21)
    RSI(14)     64.82   (89th pct of own history, since 2003 (5840 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-21)
     5d return  +1.55%
    20d return  +2.47%
    60d return  -1.01%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.9269%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.8375%
    tightening-2015  0.6352%
    ZIRP-2019        0.6132%
    tightening-2022  0.7299%
    easing-2024      0.5957%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-14)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-21 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -29,002 contracts (net short NZD)
    net % OI    -24.5%
    net%OI range -27.1% … +28.5% (own 133w)
    w/w change  -1,801
  rate differential (NZD–USD policy)
    NZD (RBNZ_OCR)        2.50%  (set 2026-07-08, announced target)
    next RBNZ             2026-09-02  (43 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-07-21, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-07-29  (8 days)
    differential    -1.13%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-21)
    vs DXY      -0.73
    vs S&P 500  +0.40
    vs DXY beta -1.21 (26w)