NZD/USD: 20-day volatility 0.385% daily (4th pct)

On 2026-07-22, NZD/USD closed at 0.58262, down 0.46% on the day. It trades at 47.5% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 58.85 is in the 76th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +2.85% in the 82nd percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -24.5% of open interest, in the 5th percentile of its own two-year range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.57365 / 0.58008 / 0.58208, with price +1.56% / +0.44% / +0.09% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.55842–0.60933; it closed 4.38% below the high and 4.33% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.385% daily, in the 4th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00491 (49.1 pips), 0.84% of price. It has returned +0.22% over 5 days and -1.06% over 60 days.

=== NZD/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.58262  -0.456%   · 20d vol 0.385% daily (4th pct, since 2003 (5835 obs))
     cross-signal: flow signals split — 20d return up / daily % down
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-22, prior 2026-07-21)
    close       0.58262
    change      -0.00267  (-0.456%, -26.7 pips)
    gap         -0.00280  (-28.0 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-22)
    range       0.00218  (21.8 pips)
    close pos   62.8% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-22)
     20d MA     0.57365   price above by +1.56%
     50d MA     0.58008   price above by +0.44%
    200d MA     0.58208   price above by +0.09%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-22)
    20d stdev   0.385% daily ≈ 6.1% annualized (×√252)   (4th pct of own history, since 2003 (5835 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.65× (0.385% vs 0.596% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-22)
    ATR(14)    0.00491  (49.1 pips)
    ATR%        0.84%   (19th pct of own history, since 2003 (5841 obs))
    range/ATR   44.4%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-22)
    high        0.60933   (-4.38% from high)
    low         0.55842   (+4.33% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-22)
    RSI(14)     58.85   (76th pct of own history, since 2003 (5841 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-22)
     5d return  +0.22%
    20d return  +2.85%
    60d return  -1.06%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.9269%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.8375%
    tightening-2015  0.6352%
    ZIRP-2019        0.6132%
    tightening-2022  0.7299%
    easing-2024      0.5955%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-14)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-21 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -29,002 contracts (net short NZD)
    net % OI    -24.5%
    net%OI range -27.1% … +28.5% (own 133w)
    w/w change  -1,801
  rate differential (NZD–USD policy)
    NZD (RBNZ_OCR)        2.50%  (set 2026-07-08, announced target)
    next RBNZ             2026-09-02  (42 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-07-21, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-07-29  (7 days)
    differential    -1.13%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-22)
    vs DXY      -0.73
    vs S&P 500  +0.39
    vs DXY beta -1.22 (26w)