FX Daily — 2026-07-22

FX daily report for reference date 2026-07-22. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT  (as of 2026-07-22, config order)

           close   day %    RSI (pct)   52wk  20d ret (pct)  pos net%OI (pct)
EUR/USD  1.14038  -0.12%  42.6 (27th)  11.2%  +0.21% (54th)       -6.7% (8th)
GBP/USD  1.33792  -0.39%  50.0 (49th)  44.0%  +1.36% (72nd)     +10.8% (47th)
USD/JPY  163.186  +0.43%  68.0 (91st)  99.9%  +0.98% (63rd)     -22.8% (24th)
USD/CHF   0.8124  +0.29%  60.1 (81st)  91.4%  +0.33% (58th)      -8.8% (54th)
AUD/USD  0.70008  +0.00%  53.4 (59th)  67.9%  +1.23% (66th)     +13.1% (72nd)
USD/CAD  1.41051  +0.24%  52.7 (59th)  81.3%  -0.74% (35th)     -25.2% (27th)
NZD/USD  0.58262  -0.46%  58.9 (76th)  47.5%  +2.85% (82nd)      -24.5% (5th)
EUR/GBP  0.85224  +0.29%  40.0 (19th)  13.7%  -1.14% (26th)      -1.4% (97th)
EUR/HUF  362.311  +0.27%  66.5 (92nd)  26.7%  +2.39% (89th)
USD/HUF  317.255  +0.13%  64.5 (88th)  33.6%  +1.84% (72nd)
GBP/HUF   424.37  -0.26%  66.4 (93rd)  36.0%  +3.24% (88th)
CHANGES (vs prior session)
  USD/JPY  new 52wk intraday high (163.198)
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal)
  USD/JPY  52wk position 99.9% of range (52wk)                    · surprise 100
  AUD/USD  20d vol 0.332% daily         (2nd pct, since 2006 (5217 obs)) · surprise  96
  EUR/GBP  positioning net%OI -1.4%     (97th pct — near top of own 133w range (band tops at +0.1%)) · surprise  94
  USD/CAD  20d vol 0.220% daily         (3rd pct, since 2003 (5919 obs)) · surprise  94
  NZD/USD  20d vol 0.385% daily         (4th pct, since 2003 (5835 obs)) · surprise  92
  EUR/USD  20d vol 0.240% daily         (4th pct, since 2003 (5841 obs)) · surprise  92
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-07-22)
  level       16.64
  change      -0.41  (-2.4%)  (prior 2026-07-21)
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
  1yr pctile  41st pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY)  (as of 2026-07-22)  (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below)
  level       101.140
  change      -0.040  (-0.04%)  (prior 2026-07-21)
  1yr range   96.220 … 101.610 (252d)
  1yr pctile  96th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     99.060   price above by +2.10%
equity market (S&P 500)  (as of 2026-07-22)
  level       7498.96
  change      -10.24  (-0.14%)  (prior 2026-07-21)
  1yr range   6238.01 … 7609.78 (252d)
  1yr pctile  91st pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     6998.91   price above by +7.14%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-07-22)
  >> ECB   2026-07-23  (1 day)   · cross-link: EUR/USD (20d vol 4th pct), EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI 97th pct — near top of own 133w range (band tops at +0.1%))
  >> Fed   2026-07-29  (7 days)   · cross-link: EUR/USD (20d vol 4th pct), USD/JPY (52wk position 99.9% of range), AUD/USD (20d vol 2nd pct), USD/CAD (20d vol 3rd pct), NZD/USD (20d vol 4th pct)
  >> BoE   2026-07-30  (8 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI 97th pct — near top of own 133w range (band tops at +0.1%))
  >> BoJ   2026-07-31  (9 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (52wk position 99.9% of range)
  >> RBA   2026-08-11  (20 days)   · cross-link: AUD/USD (20d vol 2nd pct)
  >> BoC   2026-09-02  (42 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (20d vol 3rd pct)
  >> RBNZ  2026-09-02  (42 days)   · cross-link: NZD/USD (20d vol 4th pct)