EUR/GBP: positioning -1.4% (97th pct)

On 2026-07-22, EUR/GBP closed at 0.85224, up 0.29% on the day. It trades at 13.7% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 40.01 is in the 19th percentile of its history since 1999, and its 20-day return of -1.14% in the 26th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -1.4% of open interest, in the 97th percentile of its own two-year range. It is trading below its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.85485 / 0.86102 / 0.86861, with price -0.30% / -1.02% / -1.89% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.8468–0.88653; it closed 3.87% below the high and 0.64% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.237% daily, in the 8th percentile of its history since 1999. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00347 (34.7 pips), 0.41% of price. It has returned -0.06% over 5 days and -1.64% over 60 days.

=== EUR/GBP  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.85224  +0.287%   · price < all MAs; positioning net%OI -1.4% (97th pct — near top of own 133w range (band tops at +0.1%))
     cross-signal: flow signals split — daily % up / 20d return down
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-22, prior 2026-07-21)
    close       0.85224
    change      +0.00244  (+0.287%, +24.4 pips)
    gap         +0.00240  (+24.0 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-22)
    range       0.00205  (20.5 pips)
    close pos   16.6% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-22)
     20d MA     0.85485   price below by -0.30%
     50d MA     0.86102   price below by -1.02%
    200d MA     0.86861   price below by -1.89%
    price < all MAs
    stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-22)
    20d stdev   0.237% daily ≈ 3.8% annualized (×√252)   (8th pct of own history, since 1999 (7145 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.88× (0.237% vs 0.270% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-22)
    ATR(14)    0.00347  (34.7 pips)
    ATR%        0.41%   (4th pct of own history, since 1999 (7151 obs))
    range/ATR   59.1%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-22)
    high        0.88653   (-3.87% from high)
    low         0.84680   (+0.64% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-22)
    RSI(14)     40.01   (19th pct of own history, since 1999 (7151 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-22)
     5d return  -0.06%
    20d return  -1.14%
    60d return  -1.64%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.4968%   (from 1999-01-04)
    ZIRP-2009        0.5520%
    tightening-2015  0.5609%
    ZIRP-2019        0.4735%
    tightening-2022  0.8002%
    easing-2024      0.2700%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-14)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-21 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -558 contracts (net short EUR/GBP)
    source      standalone EUR/GBP cross future (own OI, not EUR/GBP majors)
    net % OI    -1.4%
    net%OI range -53.5% … +0.1% (own 133w)
    w/w change  -90
  rate differential (EUR–GBP policy)
    EUR (ECB_DFR)         2.25%  (set 2026-06-17, deposit-facility floor)
    next ECB              2026-07-23  (1 day)
    GBP (BOE_BANK_RATE)   3.75%  (as of 2026-07-22, official Bank Rate)
    next BoE              2026-07-30  (8 days)
    differential    -1.50%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-22)
    vs DXY      +0.06
    vs S&P 500  +0.27
    vs DXY beta +0.04 (26w)