EUR/GBP: positioning -1.4% (97th pct)

On 2026-07-21, EUR/GBP closed at 0.8498, down 0.01% on the day. It trades at 7.6% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 31.34 is in the 4th percentile of its history since 1999, and its 20-day return of -1.48% in the 19th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -1.4% of open interest, in the 97th percentile of its own two-year range. It is trading below its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.85534 / 0.86131 / 0.8687, with price -0.65% / -1.34% / -2.18% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.8468–0.88653; it closed 4.14% below the high and 0.35% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.223% daily, in the 5th percentile of its history since 1999. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00342 (34.2 pips), 0.40% of price. It has returned -0.34% over 5 days and -1.86% over 60 days.

=== EUR/GBP  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.84980  -0.008%   · price < all MAs; positioning net%OI -1.4% (97th pct — near top of own 133w range (band tops at +0.1%))
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-21, prior 2026-07-20)
    close       0.84980
    change      -0.00007  (-0.008%, -0.7 pips)
    gap         +0.00004  (+0.4 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-21)
    range       0.00483  (48.3 pips)
    close pos   16.6% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-21)
     20d MA     0.85534   price below by -0.65%
     50d MA     0.86131   price below by -1.34%
    200d MA     0.86870   price below by -2.18%
    price < all MAs
    stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-21)
    20d stdev   0.223% daily ≈ 3.5% annualized (×√252)   (5th pct of own history, since 1999 (7144 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.83× (0.223% vs 0.270% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-21)
    ATR(14)    0.00342  (34.2 pips)
    ATR%        0.40%   (4th pct of own history, since 1999 (7150 obs))
    range/ATR   141.4%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-21)
    high        0.88653   (-4.14% from high)
    low         0.84680   (+0.35% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-21)
    RSI(14)     31.34   (4th pct of own history, since 1999 (7150 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-21)
     5d return  -0.34%
    20d return  -1.48%
    60d return  -1.86%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.4968%   (from 1999-01-04)
    ZIRP-2009        0.5520%
    tightening-2015  0.5609%
    ZIRP-2019        0.4735%
    tightening-2022  0.8002%
    easing-2024      0.2699%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-14)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-21 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -558 contracts (net short EUR/GBP)
    source      standalone EUR/GBP cross future (own OI, not EUR/GBP majors)
    net % OI    -1.4%
    net%OI range -53.5% … +0.1% (own 133w)
    w/w change  -90
  rate differential (EUR–GBP policy)
    EUR (ECB_DFR)         2.25%  (set 2026-06-17, deposit-facility floor)
    next ECB              2026-07-23  (2 days)
    GBP (BOE_BANK_RATE)   3.75%  (as of 2026-07-21, official Bank Rate)
    next BoE              2026-07-30  (9 days)
    differential    -1.50%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-21)
    vs DXY      +0.06
    vs S&P 500  +0.27
    vs DXY beta +0.03 (26w)