USD/CAD: 20-day volatility 0.220% daily (3rd pct)

On 2026-07-22, USD/CAD closed at 1.41051, up 0.24% on the day. It trades at 81.3% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 52.73 is in the 59th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -0.74% in the 35th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -25.2% of open interest, in the 27th percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.41513 / 1.4001 / 1.38533, with price -0.33% / +0.74% / +1.82% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.3484–1.42478; it closed 1.00% below the high and 4.61% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.220% daily, in the 3rd percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00604 (60.4 pips), 0.43% of price. It has returned +0.38% over 5 days and +3.11% over 60 days.

=== USD/CAD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 1.41051  +0.240%   · 20d vol 0.220% daily (3rd pct, since 2003 (5919 obs))
     cross-signal: flow signals split — daily % up / 20d return down
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-22, prior 2026-07-21)
    close       1.41051
    change      +0.00338  (+0.240%, +33.8 pips)
    gap         +0.00357  (+35.7 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-22)
    range       0.00302  (30.2 pips)
    close pos   92.7% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-22)
     20d MA     1.41513   price below by -0.33%
     50d MA     1.40010   price above by +0.74%
    200d MA     1.38533   price above by +1.82%
    price mixed vs MAs
    stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-22)
    20d stdev   0.220% daily ≈ 3.5% annualized (×√252)   (3rd pct of own history, since 2003 (5919 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.67× (0.220% vs 0.328% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-22)
    ATR(14)    0.00604  (60.4 pips)
    ATR%        0.43%   (3rd pct of own history, since 2003 (5925 obs))
    range/ATR   50.0%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-22)
    high        1.42478   (-1.00% from high)
    low         1.34840   (+4.61% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-22)
    RSI(14)     52.73   (59th pct of own history, since 2003 (5925 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-22)
     5d return  +0.38%
    20d return  -0.74%
    60d return  +3.11%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.6422%   (from 2003-09-17)
    ZIRP-2009        0.5827%
    tightening-2015  0.4850%
    ZIRP-2019        0.4557%
    tightening-2022  0.4399%
    easing-2024      0.3279%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-14)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-21 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -92,771 contracts (net short CAD; = long USD in USD/CAD terms)
    net % OI    -25.2%
    net%OI range -31.9% … -6.8% (own 133w)
    w/w change  -6,814
  rate differential (USD–CAD policy)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-07-21, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-07-29  (7 days)
    CAD (BOC_TARGET)      2.25%  (as of 2026-07-21, announced target)
    next BoC              2026-09-02  (42 days)
    differential    +1.38%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-22)
    vs DXY      +0.46
    vs S&P 500  -0.21
    vs DXY beta +0.46 (26w)