USD/CAD: 20-day volatility 0.215% daily (3rd pct)

On 2026-07-23, USD/CAD closed at 1.40855, down 0.14% on the day. It trades at 78.8% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 49.72 is in the 49th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -1.05% in the 30th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -26.9% of open interest, in the 20th percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.41438 / 1.40086 / 1.38535, with price -0.41% / +0.55% / +1.67% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.3484–1.42478; it closed 1.14% below the high and 4.46% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.215% daily, in the 3rd percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00596 (59.6 pips), 0.42% of price. It has returned +0.34% over 5 days and +3.03% over 60 days.

=== USD/CAD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 1.40855  -0.139%   · 20d vol 0.215% daily (3rd pct, since 2003 (5920 obs))
     cross-signal: flow signals align USD/CAD down: 20d return, daily %
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-23, prior 2026-07-22)
    close       1.40855
    change      -0.00196  (-0.139%, -19.6 pips)
    gap         -0.00203  (-20.3 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-23)
    range       0.00426  (42.6 pips)
    close pos   69.2% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-23)
     20d MA     1.41438   price below by -0.41%
     50d MA     1.40086   price above by +0.55%
    200d MA     1.38535   price above by +1.67%
    price mixed vs MAs
    stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-23)
    20d stdev   0.215% daily ≈ 3.4% annualized (×√252)   (3rd pct of own history, since 2003 (5920 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.66× (0.215% vs 0.328% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-23)
    ATR(14)    0.00596  (59.6 pips)
    ATR%        0.42%   (3rd pct of own history, since 2003 (5926 obs))
    range/ATR   71.5%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-23)
    high        1.42478   (-1.14% from high)
    low         1.34840   (+4.46% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-23)
    RSI(14)     49.72   (49th pct of own history, since 2003 (5926 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-23)
     5d return  +0.34%
    20d return  -1.05%
    60d return  +3.03%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.6422%   (from 2003-09-17)
    ZIRP-2009        0.5827%
    tightening-2015  0.4850%
    ZIRP-2019        0.4557%
    tightening-2022  0.4399%
    easing-2024      0.3278%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-21)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-28 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -98,377 contracts (net short CAD; = long USD in USD/CAD terms)
    net % OI    -26.9%
    net%OI range -31.9% … -6.8% (own 134w)
    w/w change  -5,606
  rate differential (USD–CAD policy)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-07-23, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-07-29  (6 days)
    CAD (BOC_TARGET)      2.25%  (as of 2026-07-23, announced target)
    next BoC              2026-09-02  (41 days)
    differential    +1.38%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-23)
    vs DXY      +0.46
    vs S&P 500  -0.22
    vs DXY beta +0.46 (26w)