NZD/USD: positioning -28.6% (0th pct)

On 2026-07-23, NZD/USD closed at 0.58143, down 0.20% on the day. It trades at 45.2% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 56.36 is in the 69th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +3.01% in the 83rd percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -28.6% of open interest, in the 0th percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.5745 / 0.57984 / 0.58213, with price +1.21% / +0.27% / -0.12% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.55842–0.60933; it closed 4.58% below the high and 4.12% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.376% daily, in the 3rd percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00501 (50.1 pips), 0.86% of price. It has returned -0.57% over 5 days and -0.45% over 60 days.

=== NZD/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.58143  -0.204%   · positioning net%OI -28.6% (0th pct — near bottom of own 134w range (band bottoms at -28.6%))
     cross-signal: flow signals split — 20d return up / daily % down
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-23, prior 2026-07-22)
    close       0.58143
    change      -0.00119  (-0.204%, -11.9 pips)
    gap         -0.00115  (-11.5 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-23)
    range       0.00602  (60.2 pips)
    close pos   84.1% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-23)
     20d MA     0.57450   price above by +1.21%
     50d MA     0.57984   price above by +0.27%
    200d MA     0.58213   price below by -0.12%
    price mixed vs MAs
    stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-23)
    20d stdev   0.376% daily ≈ 6.0% annualized (×√252)   (3rd pct of own history, since 2003 (5836 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.63× (0.376% vs 0.595% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-23)
    ATR(14)    0.00501  (50.1 pips)
    ATR%        0.86%   (21st pct of own history, since 2003 (5842 obs))
    range/ATR   120.2%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-23)
    high        0.60933   (-4.58% from high)
    low         0.55842   (+4.12% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-23)
    RSI(14)     56.36   (69th pct of own history, since 2003 (5842 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-23)
     5d return  -0.57%
    20d return  +3.01%
    60d return  -0.45%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.9269%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.8375%
    tightening-2015  0.6352%
    ZIRP-2019        0.6132%
    tightening-2022  0.7299%
    easing-2024      0.5951%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-21)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-28 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -31,086 contracts (net short NZD)
    net % OI    -28.6%
    net%OI range -28.6% … +28.5% (own 134w)
    w/w change  -2,084
  rate differential (NZD–USD policy)
    NZD (RBNZ_OCR)        2.50%  (set 2026-07-08, announced target)
    next RBNZ             2026-09-02  (41 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-07-23, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-07-29  (6 days)
    differential    -1.13%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-23)
    vs DXY      -0.73
    vs S&P 500  +0.40
    vs DXY beta -1.21 (26w)