NZD/USD: positioning -28.6% (0th pct)

On 2026-07-24, NZD/USD closed at 0.57741, down 0.69% on the day. It trades at 37.3% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 48.85 is in the 45th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +2.32% in the 77th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -28.6% of open interest, in the 0th percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.57515 / 0.57959 / 0.58216, with price +0.39% / -0.38% / -0.82% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.55842–0.60933; it closed 5.24% below the high and 3.40% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.419% daily, in the 7th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00494 (49.4 pips), 0.86% of price. It has returned -1.16% over 5 days and -2.25% over 60 days.

=== NZD/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.57741  -0.691%   · positioning net%OI -28.6% (0th pct — near bottom of own 134w range (band bottoms at -28.6%))
     cross-signal: flow signals split — 20d return up / daily % down
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-24, prior 2026-07-23)
    close       0.57741
    change      -0.00402  (-0.691%, -40.2 pips)
    gap         -0.00400  (-40.0 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-24)
    range       0.00302  (30.2 pips)
    close pos   2.3% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-24)
     20d MA     0.57515   price above by +0.39%
     50d MA     0.57959   price below by -0.38%
    200d MA     0.58216   price below by -0.82%
    price mixed vs MAs
    stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-24)
    20d stdev   0.419% daily ≈ 6.7% annualized (×√252)   (7th pct of own history, since 2003 (5837 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.70× (0.419% vs 0.595% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-24)
    ATR(14)    0.00494  (49.4 pips)
    ATR%        0.86%   (21st pct of own history, since 2003 (5843 obs))
    range/ATR   61.1%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-24)
    high        0.60933   (-5.24% from high)
    low         0.55842   (+3.40% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-24)
    RSI(14)     48.85   (45th pct of own history, since 2003 (5843 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-24)
     5d return  -1.16%
    20d return  +2.32%
    60d return  -2.25%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.9269%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.8375%
    tightening-2015  0.6352%
    ZIRP-2019        0.6132%
    tightening-2022  0.7299%
    easing-2024      0.5953%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-21)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-28 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -31,086 contracts (net short NZD)
    net % OI    -28.6%
    net%OI range -28.6% … +28.5% (own 134w)
    w/w change  -2,084
  rate differential (NZD–USD policy)
    NZD (RBNZ_OCR)        2.50%  (set 2026-07-08, announced target)
    next RBNZ             2026-09-02  (40 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-07-23, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-07-29  (5 days)
    differential    -1.13%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-23)
    vs DXY      -0.73
    vs S&P 500  +0.40
    vs DXY beta -1.21 (26w)