NZD/USD: positioning -28.6% (0th pct)

On 2026-07-27, NZD/USD closed at 0.57985, up 0.42% on the day. It trades at 42.1% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 52.95 is in the 58th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +2.80% in the 81st percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -28.6% of open interest, in the 0th percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.57594 / 0.57952 / 0.5822, with price +0.68% / +0.06% / -0.40% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.55842–0.60933; it closed 4.84% below the high and 3.84% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.423% daily, in the 7th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00485 (48.5 pips), 0.84% of price. It has returned -0.71% over 5 days and -1.83% over 60 days.

=== NZD/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.57985  +0.423%   · positioning net%OI -28.6% (0th pct — near bottom of own 134w range (band bottoms at -28.6%))
     cross-signal: flow signals align NZD/USD up: 20d return, daily %
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-27, prior 2026-07-24)
    close       0.57985
    change      +0.00244  (+0.423%, +24.4 pips)
    gap         +0.00278  (+27.8 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-27)
    range       0.00317  (31.7 pips)
    close pos   62.8% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-27)
     20d MA     0.57594   price above by +0.68%
     50d MA     0.57952   price above by +0.06%
    200d MA     0.58220   price below by -0.40%
    price mixed vs MAs
    stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-27)
    20d stdev   0.423% daily ≈ 6.7% annualized (×√252)   (7th pct of own history, since 2003 (5838 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.71× (0.423% vs 0.595% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-27)
    ATR(14)    0.00485  (48.5 pips)
    ATR%        0.84%   (18th pct of own history, since 2003 (5844 obs))
    range/ATR   65.4%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-27)
    high        0.60933   (-4.84% from high)
    low         0.55842   (+3.84% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-27)
    RSI(14)     52.95   (58th pct of own history, since 2003 (5844 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-27)
     5d return  -0.71%
    20d return  +2.80%
    60d return  -1.83%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.9269%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.8375%
    tightening-2015  0.6352%
    ZIRP-2019        0.6132%
    tightening-2022  0.7299%
    easing-2024      0.5950%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-21)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-28 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -31,086 contracts (net short NZD)
    net % OI    -28.6%
    net%OI range -28.6% … +28.5% (own 134w)
    w/w change  -2,084
  rate differential (NZD–USD policy)
    NZD (RBNZ_OCR)        2.50%  (set 2026-07-08, announced target)
    next RBNZ             2026-09-02  (37 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-07-24, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-07-29  (2 days)
    differential    -1.13%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-27)
    vs DXY      -0.74
    vs S&P 500  +0.44
    vs DXY beta -1.14 (26w)