NZD/USD: positioning -24.5% (5th pct)

On 2026-07-17, NZD/USD closed at 0.58418, down 0.10% on the day. It trades at 50.6% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 63.53 is in the 87th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +1.51% in the 68th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -24.5% of open interest, in the 5th percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.57161 / 0.58078 / 0.58195, with price +2.20% / +0.59% / +0.38% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.55842–0.60933; it closed 4.13% below the high and 4.61% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.447% daily, in the 10th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00518 (51.8 pips), 0.89% of price. It has returned +1.38% over 5 days and -0.20% over 60 days.

=== NZD/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.58418  -0.103%   · price > all MAs; positioning net%OI -24.5% (5th pct — near bottom of own 133w range (band bottoms at -27.1%))
     cross-signal: flow signals split — 20d return up / daily % down
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-17, prior 2026-07-16)
    close       0.58418
    change      -0.00060  (-0.103%, -6.0 pips)
    gap         -0.00050  (-5.0 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-17)
    range       0.00229  (22.9 pips)
    close pos   66.8% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-17)
     20d MA     0.57161   price above by +2.20%
     50d MA     0.58078   price above by +0.59%
    200d MA     0.58195   price above by +0.38%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-17)
    20d stdev   0.447% daily ≈ 7.1% annualized (×√252)   (10th pct of own history, since 2003 (5832 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.75× (0.447% vs 0.597% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-17)
    ATR(14)    0.00518  (51.8 pips)
    ATR%        0.89%   (25th pct of own history, since 2003 (5838 obs))
    range/ATR   44.2%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-17)
    high        0.60933   (-4.13% from high)
    low         0.55842   (+4.61% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-17)
    RSI(14)     63.53   (87th pct of own history, since 2003 (5838 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-17)
     5d return  +1.38%
    20d return  +1.51%
    60d return  -0.20%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.9269%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.8375%
    tightening-2015  0.6352%
    ZIRP-2019        0.6132%
    tightening-2022  0.7299%
    easing-2024      0.5966%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-14)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-21 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -29,002 contracts (net short NZD)
    net % OI    -24.5%
    net%OI range -27.1% … +28.5% (own 133w)
    w/w change  -1,801
  rate differential (NZD–USD policy)
    NZD (RBNZ_OCR)        2.50%  (set 2026-07-08, announced target)
    next RBNZ             2026-09-02  (47 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-07-16, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-07-29  (12 days)
    differential    -1.13%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-17)
    vs DXY      -0.78
    vs S&P 500  +0.33
    vs DXY beta -1.29 (26w)