EUR/USD: 20-day volatility 0.234% daily (3rd pct)

On 2026-07-23, EUR/USD closed at 1.14117, up 0.07% on the day. It trades at 12.4% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 44.04 is in the 32nd percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +0.51% in the 59th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -7.1% of open interest, in the 5th percentile of its own two-year range. It is trading below its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.14156 / 1.15101 / 1.1637, with price -0.03% / -0.86% / -1.94% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.13254–1.20236; it closed 5.09% below the high and 0.76% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.234% daily, in the 3rd percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00556 (55.6 pips), 0.49% of price. It has returned -0.51% over 5 days and -2.34% over 60 days.

=== EUR/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 1.14117  +0.069%   · 20d vol 0.234% daily (3rd pct, since 2003 (5842 obs))
     cross-signal: flow signals align EUR/USD up: 20d return, daily %
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-23, prior 2026-07-22)
    close       1.14117
    change      +0.00079  (+0.069%, +7.9 pips)
    gap         +0.00089  (+8.9 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-23)
    range       0.00726  (72.6 pips)
    close pos   64.2% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-23)
     20d MA     1.14156   price below by -0.03%
     50d MA     1.15101   price below by -0.86%
    200d MA     1.16370   price below by -1.94%
    price < all MAs
    stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-23)
    20d stdev   0.234% daily ≈ 3.7% annualized (×√252)   (3rd pct of own history, since 2003 (5842 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.54× (0.234% vs 0.430% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-23)
    ATR(14)    0.00556  (55.6 pips)
    ATR%        0.49%   (5th pct of own history, since 2003 (5848 obs))
    range/ATR   130.7%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-23)
    high        1.20236   (-5.09% from high)
    low         1.13254   (+0.76% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-23)
    RSI(14)     44.04   (32nd pct of own history, since 2003 (5848 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-23)
     5d return  -0.51%
    20d return  +0.51%
    60d return  -2.34%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       1.0543%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.6640%
    tightening-2015  0.4886%
    ZIRP-2019        0.3870%
    tightening-2022  0.5496%
    easing-2024      0.4302%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-21)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-28 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -56,671 contracts (net short EUR)
    net % OI    -7.1%
    net%OI range -7.8% … +6.5% (own 134w)
    w/w change  -2,980
  rate differential (EUR–USD policy)
    EUR (ECB_DFR)         2.25%  (set 2026-06-17, deposit-facility floor)
    next ECB              2026-09-10  (49 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-07-23, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-07-29  (6 days)
    differential    -1.38%  (base−quote)
  10Y yield spread (US–EU)
    US (DGS10)      4.71%  (as of 2026-07-23)
    EU (euro-area AAA 10Y) 3.22%  (as of 2026-07-23)
    spread          +1.49%
  2Y yield spread (US–EU)
    US (DGS2)       4.37%  (as of 2026-07-23)
    EU (euro-area AAA 2Y) 2.80%  (as of 2026-07-23)
    spread          +1.57%
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-23)
    vs DXY      -0.78
    vs S&P 500  +0.41
    vs DXY beta -0.80 (26w)