On 2026-07-23, EUR/USD closed at 1.14117, up 0.07% on the day. It trades at 12.4% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 44.04 is in the 32nd percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +0.51% in the 59th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -7.1% of open interest, in the 5th percentile of its own two-year range. It is trading below its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.14156 / 1.15101 / 1.1637, with price -0.03% / -0.86% / -1.94% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.13254–1.20236; it closed 5.09% below the high and 0.76% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.234% daily, in the 3rd percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00556 (55.6 pips), 0.49% of price. It has returned -0.51% over 5 days and -2.34% over 60 days.
=== EUR/USD (pip 0.0001) ===
>> close 1.14117 +0.069% · 20d vol 0.234% daily (3rd pct, since 2003 (5842 obs))
cross-signal: flow signals align EUR/USD up: 20d return, daily %
price & change (as of 2026-07-23, prior 2026-07-22)
close 1.14117
change +0.00079 (+0.069%, +7.9 pips)
gap +0.00089 (+8.9 pips) (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
range (as of 2026-07-23)
range 0.00726 (72.6 pips)
close pos 64.2% of range
moving averages (as of 2026-07-23)
20d MA 1.14156 price below by -0.03%
50d MA 1.15101 price below by -0.86%
200d MA 1.16370 price below by -1.94%
price < all MAs
stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
volatility (as of 2026-07-23)
20d stdev 0.234% daily ≈ 3.7% annualized (×√252) (3rd pct of own history, since 2003 (5842 obs))
vs easing-2024 avg 0.54× (0.234% vs 0.430% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-07-23)
ATR(14) 0.00556 (55.6 pips)
ATR% 0.49% (5th pct of own history, since 2003 (5848 obs))
range/ATR 130.7%
52-week range (as of 2026-07-23)
high 1.20236 (-5.09% from high)
low 1.13254 (+0.76% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-07-23)
RSI(14) 44.04 (32nd pct of own history, since 2003 (5848 obs))
returns (as of 2026-07-23)
5d return -0.51%
20d return +0.51%
60d return -2.34%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis 1.0543% (from 2003-12-01)
ZIRP-2009 0.6640%
tightening-2015 0.4886%
ZIRP-2019 0.3870%
tightening-2022 0.5496%
easing-2024 0.4302%
positioning (as of 2026-07-21)
next COT as of 2026-07-28 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net -56,671 contracts (net short EUR)
net % OI -7.1%
net%OI range -7.8% … +6.5% (own 134w)
w/w change -2,980
rate differential (EUR–USD policy)
EUR (ECB_DFR) 2.25% (set 2026-06-17, deposit-facility floor)
next ECB 2026-09-10 (49 days)
USD (EFFR) 3.63% (as of 2026-07-23, daily effective)
next Fed 2026-07-29 (6 days)
differential -1.38% (base−quote)
10Y yield spread (US–EU)
US (DGS10) 4.71% (as of 2026-07-23)
EU (euro-area AAA 10Y) 3.22% (as of 2026-07-23)
spread +1.49%
2Y yield spread (US–EU)
US (DGS2) 4.37% (as of 2026-07-23)
EU (euro-area AAA 2Y) 2.80% (as of 2026-07-23)
spread +1.57%
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-07-23)
vs DXY -0.78
vs S&P 500 +0.41
vs DXY beta -0.80 (26w)