EUR/USD: 20-day volatility 0.245% daily (4th pct)

On 2026-07-24, EUR/USD closed at 1.13768, down 0.31% on the day. It trades at 7.4% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 39.51 is in the 19th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +0.13% in the 53rd percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -7.1% of open interest, in the 5th percentile of its own two-year range. It is trading below its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.14163 / 1.15044 / 1.16359, with price -0.35% / -1.11% / -2.23% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.13254–1.20236; it closed 5.38% below the high and 0.45% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.245% daily, in the 4th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00547 (54.7 pips), 0.48% of price. It has returned -0.59% over 5 days and -3.00% over 60 days.

=== EUR/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 1.13768  -0.306%   · 20d vol 0.245% daily (4th pct, since 2003 (5843 obs))
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-24, prior 2026-07-23)
    close       1.13768
    change      -0.00349  (-0.306%, -34.9 pips)
    gap         -0.00355  (-35.5 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-24)
    range       0.00324  (32.4 pips)
    close pos   28.7% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-24)
     20d MA     1.14163   price below by -0.35%
     50d MA     1.15044   price below by -1.11%
    200d MA     1.16359   price below by -2.23%
    price < all MAs
    stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-24)
    20d stdev   0.245% daily ≈ 3.9% annualized (×√252)   (4th pct of own history, since 2003 (5843 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.57× (0.245% vs 0.430% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-24)
    ATR(14)    0.00547  (54.7 pips)
    ATR%        0.48%   (4th pct of own history, since 2003 (5849 obs))
    range/ATR   59.2%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-24)
    high        1.20236   (-5.38% from high)
    low         1.13254   (+0.45% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-24)
    RSI(14)     39.51   (19th pct of own history, since 2003 (5849 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-24)
     5d return  -0.59%
    20d return  +0.13%
    60d return  -3.00%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       1.0543%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.6640%
    tightening-2015  0.4886%
    ZIRP-2019        0.3870%
    tightening-2022  0.5496%
    easing-2024      0.4300%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-21)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-28 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -56,671 contracts (net short EUR)
    net % OI    -7.1%
    net%OI range -7.8% … +6.5% (own 134w)
    w/w change  -2,980
  rate differential (EUR–USD policy)
    EUR (ECB_DFR)         2.25%  (set 2026-06-17, deposit-facility floor)
    next ECB              2026-09-10  (48 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-07-23, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-07-29  (5 days)
    differential    -1.38%  (base−quote)
  10Y yield spread (US–EU)
    US (DGS10)      4.71%  (as of 2026-07-23)
    EU (euro-area AAA 10Y) 3.22%  (as of 2026-07-23)
    spread          +1.49%
  2Y yield spread (US–EU)
    US (DGS2)       4.37%  (as of 2026-07-23)
    EU (euro-area AAA 2Y) 2.80%  (as of 2026-07-23)
    spread          +1.57%
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-23)
    vs DXY      -0.78
    vs S&P 500  +0.41
    vs DXY beta -0.80 (26w)