USD/CAD: 20-day volatility 0.219% daily (3rd pct)

On 2026-07-28, USD/CAD closed at 1.41242, up 0.27% on the day. It trades at 83.8% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 55.90 is in the 68th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -0.60% in the 38th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -26.9% of open interest, in the 20th percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.41286 / 1.40301 / 1.38543, with price -0.03% / +0.67% / +1.95% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.3484–1.42478; it closed 0.87% below the high and 4.75% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.219% daily, in the 3rd percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00567 (56.7 pips), 0.40% of price. It has returned +0.38% over 5 days and +3.69% over 60 days.

=== USD/CAD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 1.41242  +0.268%   · 20d vol 0.219% daily (3rd pct, since 2003 (5923 obs))
     cross-signal: flow signals split — daily % up / 20d return down
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-28, prior 2026-07-27)
    close       1.41242
    change      +0.00377  (+0.268%, +37.7 pips)
    gap         +0.00399  (+39.9 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-28)
    range       0.00411  (41.1 pips)
    close pos   91.5% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-28)
     20d MA     1.41286   price below by -0.03%
     50d MA     1.40301   price above by +0.67%
    200d MA     1.38543   price above by +1.95%
    price mixed vs MAs
    stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-28)
    20d stdev   0.219% daily ≈ 3.5% annualized (×√252)   (3rd pct of own history, since 2003 (5923 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.67× (0.219% vs 0.327% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-28)
    ATR(14)    0.00567  (56.7 pips)
    ATR%        0.40%   (1st pct of own history, since 2003 (5929 obs))
    range/ATR   72.5%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-28)
    high        1.42478   (-0.87% from high)
    low         1.34840   (+4.75% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-28)
    RSI(14)     55.90   (68th pct of own history, since 2003 (5929 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-28)
     5d return  +0.38%
    20d return  -0.60%
    60d return  +3.69%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.6422%   (from 2003-09-17)
    ZIRP-2009        0.5827%
    tightening-2015  0.4850%
    ZIRP-2019        0.4557%
    tightening-2022  0.4399%
    easing-2024      0.3272%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-21)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-28 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -98,377 contracts (net short CAD; = long USD in USD/CAD terms)
    net % OI    -26.9%
    net%OI range -31.9% … -6.8% (own 134w)
    w/w change  -5,606
  rate differential (USD–CAD policy)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-07-28, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-07-29  (1 day)
    CAD (BOC_TARGET)      2.25%  (as of 2026-07-28, announced target)
    next BoC              2026-09-02  (36 days)
    differential    +1.38%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-28)
    vs DXY      +0.42
    vs S&P 500  -0.26
    vs DXY beta +0.35 (26w)