FX Daily — 2026-07-28

FX daily report for reference date 2026-07-28. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT  (as of 2026-07-28, config order)

           close   day %    RSI (pct)   52wk  20d ret (pct)  pos net%OI (pct)
EUR/USD  1.13695  -0.22%  39.5 (19th)   6.3%  -0.46% (42nd)       -7.1% (5th)
GBP/USD  1.32899  -0.46%  43.2 (28th)  33.3%  +0.27% (54th)     +12.7% (52nd)
USD/JPY  163.771  +0.10%  69.5 (93rd)  98.8%  +1.14% (66th)     -22.7% (25th)
USD/CHF  0.81928  +0.37%  67.0 (93rd)  97.9%  +1.45% (75th)      -8.2% (55th)
AUD/USD  0.69872  -0.10%  50.9 (51st)  66.3%  +1.52% (70th)     +11.0% (67th)
USD/CAD  1.41242  +0.27%  55.9 (68th)  83.8%  -0.60% (38th)     -26.9% (20th)
NZD/USD  0.57704  -0.48%  48.2 (43rd)  36.6%  +2.11% (75th)      -28.6% (0th)
EUR/GBP  0.85543  +0.23%  50.1 (52nd)  21.7%  -0.69% (35th)      -0.4% (99th)
EUR/HUF  358.954  -0.12%  52.9 (61st)  20.5%  +1.72% (81st)
USD/HUF  316.348  +0.15%  57.6 (73rd)  34.8%  +2.20% (75th)
GBP/HUF   420.45  -0.35%  53.7 (62nd)  29.7%  +2.66% (83rd)
CHANGES (vs prior session)
  USD/CHF  new 52wk intraday high (0.82047)
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal)
  NZD/USD  positioning net%OI -28.6%    (0th pct — near bottom of own 134w range (band bottoms at -28.6%)) · surprise 100
  EUR/GBP  positioning net%OI -0.4%     (99th pct — near top of own 134w range (band tops at +0.1%)) · surprise  98
  USD/JPY  52wk position 98.8% of range (52wk)                    · surprise  98
  USD/CHF  52wk position 97.9% of range (52wk)                    · surprise  96
  USD/CAD  20d vol 0.219% daily         (3rd pct, since 2003 (5923 obs)) · surprise  94
  EUR/USD  20d vol 0.236% daily         (3rd pct, since 2003 (5845 obs)) · surprise  94
  AUD/USD  20d vol 0.344% daily         (4th pct, since 2006 (5221 obs)) · surprise  92
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-07-28)
  level       18.21
  change      -0.46  (-2.5%)  (prior 2026-07-27)
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
  1yr pctile  64th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY)  (as of 2026-07-28)  (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below)
  level       101.329
  change      -0.181  (-0.18%)  (prior 2026-07-27)
  1yr range   96.220 … 101.610 (252d)
  1yr pctile  97th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     99.123   price above by +2.23%
DOLLAR CROWDING  (weekly-return correlation to DXY, 26w; how much of the book is one dollar trade — async daily closes cap the magnitude)
  6 of 11 pairs correlate |≥ 0.60| to DXY this week
  EUR/USD  -0.80
  NZD/USD  -0.74
  GBP/USD  -0.72
  USD/HUF  +0.71
  USD/CHF  +0.67
  USD/JPY  +0.60
  EUR/HUF  +0.55
  AUD/USD  -0.52
  GBP/HUF  +0.45
  USD/CAD  +0.42
  EUR/GBP  +0.06
equity market (S&P 500)  (as of 2026-07-28)
  level       7428.78
  change      +15.60  (+0.21%)  (prior 2026-07-27)
  1yr range   6238.01 … 7609.78 (252d)
  1yr pctile  86th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     7012.60   price above by +5.93%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-07-28)
  >> Fed   2026-07-29  (1 day)   · cross-link: EUR/USD (20d vol 3rd pct), USD/JPY (52wk position 98.8% of range), USD/CHF (52wk position 97.9% of range), AUD/USD (20d vol 4th pct), USD/CAD (20d vol 3rd pct), NZD/USD (positioning net%OI 0th pct — near bottom of own 134w range (band bottoms at -28.6%))
  >> BoE   2026-07-30  (2 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI 99th pct — near top of own 134w range (band tops at +0.1%))
  >> BoJ   2026-07-31  (3 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (52wk position 98.8% of range)
  >> RBA   2026-08-11  (14 days)   · cross-link: AUD/USD (20d vol 4th pct)
  >> BoC   2026-09-02  (36 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (20d vol 3rd pct)
  >> RBNZ  2026-09-02  (36 days)   · cross-link: NZD/USD (positioning net%OI 0th pct — near bottom of own 134w range (band bottoms at -28.6%))
  >> ECB   2026-09-10  (44 days)   · cross-link: EUR/USD (20d vol 3rd pct), EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI 99th pct — near top of own 134w range (band tops at +0.1%))
  >> SNB   2026-09-24  (58 days)   · cross-link: USD/CHF (52wk position 97.9% of range)