On 2026-07-28, USD/JPY closed at 163.771, up 0.10% on the day. It trades at 98.8% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 69.46 is in the 93rd percentile of its history since 1996, and its 20-day return of +1.14% in the 66th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -22.7% of open interest, in the 25th percentile of its own two-year range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 162.542 / 161.171 / 157.731, with price +0.76% / +1.61% / +3.83% against them. Its 52-week range is 146.217–163.979; it closed 0.13% below the high and 12.01% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.280% daily, in the 5th percentile of its history since 1996. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.658 (65.8 pips), 0.40% of price. It has returned +0.79% over 5 days and +4.18% over 60 days.
=== USD/JPY (pip 0.01) ===
>> close 163.771 +0.098% · 52wk position 98.8% of range (52wk)
cross-signal: flow signals align USD/JPY up: 20d return, daily %
price & change (as of 2026-07-28, prior 2026-07-27)
close 163.771
change +0.160 (+0.098%, +16.0 pips)
gap +0.181 (+18.1 pips) (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
range (as of 2026-07-28)
range 0.298 (29.8 pips)
close pos 42.6% of range
moving averages (as of 2026-07-28)
20d MA 162.542 price above by +0.76%
50d MA 161.171 price above by +1.61%
200d MA 157.731 price above by +3.83%
price > all MAs
stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
volatility (as of 2026-07-28)
20d stdev 0.280% daily ≈ 4.4% annualized (×√252) (5th pct of own history, since 1996 (7682 obs))
vs easing-2024 avg 0.47× (0.280% vs 0.590% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-07-28)
ATR(14) 0.658 (65.8 pips)
ATR% 0.40% (0th pct of own history, since 1996 (7688 obs))
range/ATR 45.3%
52-week range (as of 2026-07-28)
high 163.979 (-0.13% from high)
low 146.217 (+12.01% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-07-28)
RSI(14) 69.46 (93rd pct of own history, since 1996 (7688 obs))
returns (as of 2026-07-28)
5d return +0.79%
20d return +1.14%
60d return +4.18%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis 0.8804% (from 1996-10-30)
ZIRP-2009 0.6396%
tightening-2015 0.5829%
ZIRP-2019 0.4159%
tightening-2022 0.6795%
easing-2024 0.5903%
positioning (as of 2026-07-21)
next COT as of 2026-07-28 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net -96,185 contracts (net short JPY; = long USD in USD/JPY terms)
net % OI -22.7%
net%OI range -33.5% … +10.5% (own 134w)
w/w change -5,724
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-07-28)
vs DXY +0.60
vs S&P 500 -0.13
vs DXY beta +0.77 (26w)