USD/JPY: 98.8% of its 52-week range

On 2026-07-28, USD/JPY closed at 163.771, up 0.10% on the day. It trades at 98.8% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 69.46 is in the 93rd percentile of its history since 1996, and its 20-day return of +1.14% in the 66th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -22.7% of open interest, in the 25th percentile of its own two-year range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 162.542 / 161.171 / 157.731, with price +0.76% / +1.61% / +3.83% against them. Its 52-week range is 146.217–163.979; it closed 0.13% below the high and 12.01% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.280% daily, in the 5th percentile of its history since 1996. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.658 (65.8 pips), 0.40% of price. It has returned +0.79% over 5 days and +4.18% over 60 days.

=== USD/JPY  (pip 0.01) ===
  >> close 163.771  +0.098%   · 52wk position 98.8% of range (52wk)
     cross-signal: flow signals align USD/JPY up: 20d return, daily %
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-28, prior 2026-07-27)
    close       163.771
    change      +0.160  (+0.098%, +16.0 pips)
    gap         +0.181  (+18.1 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-28)
    range       0.298  (29.8 pips)
    close pos   42.6% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-28)
     20d MA     162.542   price above by +0.76%
     50d MA     161.171   price above by +1.61%
    200d MA     157.731   price above by +3.83%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-28)
    20d stdev   0.280% daily ≈ 4.4% annualized (×√252)   (5th pct of own history, since 1996 (7682 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.47× (0.280% vs 0.590% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-28)
    ATR(14)    0.658  (65.8 pips)
    ATR%        0.40%   (0th pct of own history, since 1996 (7688 obs))
    range/ATR   45.3%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-28)
    high        163.979   (-0.13% from high)
    low         146.217   (+12.01% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-28)
    RSI(14)     69.46   (93rd pct of own history, since 1996 (7688 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-28)
     5d return  +0.79%
    20d return  +1.14%
    60d return  +4.18%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.8804%   (from 1996-10-30)
    ZIRP-2009        0.6396%
    tightening-2015  0.5829%
    ZIRP-2019        0.4159%
    tightening-2022  0.6795%
    easing-2024      0.5903%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-21)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-28 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -96,185 contracts (net short JPY; = long USD in USD/JPY terms)
    net % OI    -22.7%
    net%OI range -33.5% … +10.5% (own 134w)
    w/w change  -5,724
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-28)
    vs DXY      +0.60
    vs S&P 500  -0.13
    vs DXY beta +0.77 (26w)