On 2026-07-27, USD/JPY closed at 163.611, down 0.14% on the day. It trades at 97.9% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 68.25 is in the 92nd percentile of its history since 1996, and its 20-day return of +1.13% in the 65th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -22.7% of open interest, in the 25th percentile of its own two-year range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 162.45 / 161.073 / 157.663, with price +0.71% / +1.58% / +3.77% against them. Its 52-week range is 146.217–163.979; it closed 0.22% below the high and 11.90% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.280% daily, in the 5th percentile of its history since 1996. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.683 (68.3 pips), 0.42% of price. It has returned +0.68% over 5 days and +4.31% over 60 days.
=== USD/JPY (pip 0.01) ===
>> close 163.611 -0.135% · 52wk position 97.9% of range (52wk)
cross-signal: flow signals split — 20d return up / daily % down
price & change (as of 2026-07-27, prior 2026-07-24)
close 163.611
change -0.221 (-0.135%, -22.1 pips)
gap -0.244 (-24.4 pips) (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
range (as of 2026-07-27)
range 0.435 (43.5 pips)
close pos 65.5% of range
moving averages (as of 2026-07-27)
20d MA 162.450 price above by +0.71%
50d MA 161.073 price above by +1.58%
200d MA 157.663 price above by +3.77%
price > all MAs
stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
volatility (as of 2026-07-27)
20d stdev 0.280% daily ≈ 4.4% annualized (×√252) (5th pct of own history, since 1996 (7681 obs))
vs easing-2024 avg 0.47× (0.280% vs 0.591% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-07-27)
ATR(14) 0.683 (68.3 pips)
ATR% 0.42% (1st pct of own history, since 1996 (7687 obs))
range/ATR 63.7%
52-week range (as of 2026-07-27)
high 163.979 (-0.22% from high)
low 146.217 (+11.90% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-07-27)
RSI(14) 68.25 (92nd pct of own history, since 1996 (7687 obs))
returns (as of 2026-07-27)
5d return +0.68%
20d return +1.13%
60d return +4.31%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis 0.8804% (from 1996-10-30)
ZIRP-2009 0.6396%
tightening-2015 0.5829%
ZIRP-2019 0.4159%
tightening-2022 0.6795%
easing-2024 0.5907%
positioning (as of 2026-07-21)
next COT as of 2026-07-28 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net -96,185 contracts (net short JPY; = long USD in USD/JPY terms)
net % OI -22.7%
net%OI range -33.5% … +10.5% (own 134w)
w/w change -5,724
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-07-27)
vs DXY +0.60
vs S&P 500 -0.13
vs DXY beta +0.77 (26w)