FX Daily — 2026-07-31

FX daily report for reference date 2026-07-31. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT  (as of 2026-07-31, config order)

           close   day %    RSI (pct)   52wk  20d ret (pct)  pos net%OI (pct)
EUR/USD  1.15235  +0.49%  60.9 (82nd)  28.4%  +0.88% (66th)       -8.0% (0th)
GBP/USD  1.34609  +0.70%  57.6 (73rd)  53.8%  +0.92% (65th)     +15.4% (60th)
USD/JPY  160.183  -1.91%   34.0 (7th)  78.6%  -0.78% (34th)     -23.6% (23rd)
USD/CHF  0.80577  -0.94%  45.3 (38th)  74.5%  +0.17% (55th)      -8.6% (54th)
AUD/USD  0.70252  +0.95%  57.1 (71st)  70.8%  +1.58% (71st)     +12.0% (69th)
USD/CAD  1.40112  -0.17%  39.4 (19th)  69.0%  -1.26% (26th)     -27.5% (17th)
NZD/USD  0.58754  +1.25%  63.2 (86th)  57.2%  +3.21% (85th)      -28.6% (0th)
EUR/GBP  0.85602  -0.21%  50.9 (55th)  23.2%  -0.01% (51st)     +1.1% (100th)
EUR/HUF  362.136  +0.00%  60.4 (81st)  26.7%  +2.69% (91st)
USD/HUF  314.266  -0.66%  51.4 (55th)  30.3%  +1.66% (70th)
GBP/HUF   422.82  -0.11%  57.4 (73rd)  33.7%  +2.53% (82nd)
CHANGES (vs prior session)
  EUR/GBP  positioning flipped to net long
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal)
  EUR/USD  positioning net%OI -8.0%     (0th pct — near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)) · surprise 100
  EUR/GBP  positioning net%OI +1.1%     (100th pct — near top of own 135w range (band tops at +1.1%)) · surprise 100
  NZD/USD  positioning net%OI -28.6%    (0th pct — near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -28.6%)) · surprise 100
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-07-31)
  level       15.99
  change      -1.10  (-6.4%)  (prior 2026-07-30)
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
  1yr pctile  24th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY)  (as of 2026-07-31)  (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below)
  level       99.800
  change      -0.210  (-0.21%)  (prior 2026-07-30)
  1yr range   96.220 … 101.610 (252d)
  1yr pctile  79th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     99.137   price above by +0.67%
DOLLAR CROWDING  (weekly-return correlation to DXY, 26w; how much of the book is one dollar trade — async daily closes cap the magnitude)
  6 of 11 pairs correlate |≥ 0.60| to DXY this week
  EUR/USD  -0.83
  NZD/USD  -0.77
  GBP/USD  -0.75
  USD/CHF  +0.73
  USD/HUF  +0.71
  USD/JPY  +0.68
  AUD/USD  -0.52
  EUR/HUF  +0.51
  USD/CAD  +0.47
  GBP/HUF  +0.44
  EUR/GBP  +0.01
equity market (S&P 500)  (as of 2026-07-31)
  level       7489.72
  change      +52.09  (+0.70%)  (prior 2026-07-30)
  1yr range   6238.01 … 7609.78 (252d)
  1yr pctile  91st pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     7024.11   price above by +6.63%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-07-31)
  >> RBNZ  2026-09-02  (33 days)   · cross-link: NZD/USD (positioning net%OI 0th pct — near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -28.6%))
  >> ECB   2026-09-10  (41 days)   · cross-link: EUR/USD (positioning net%OI 0th pct — near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)), EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI 100th pct — near top of own 135w range (band tops at +1.1%))
  >> Fed   2026-09-16  (47 days)   · cross-link: EUR/USD (positioning net%OI 0th pct — near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)), NZD/USD (positioning net%OI 0th pct — near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -28.6%))
  >> BoE   2026-09-17  (48 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI 100th pct — near top of own 135w range (band tops at +1.1%))