NZD/USD: positioning -28.6% (0th pct)

On 2026-07-31, NZD/USD closed at 0.58754, up 1.25% on the day. It trades at 57.2% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 63.23 is in the 86th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +3.21% in the 85th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -28.6% of open interest, in the 0th percentile of its own two-year range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.57862 / 0.57907 / 0.58234, with price +1.54% / +1.46% / +0.89% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.55842–0.60933; it closed 3.58% below the high and 5.21% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.510% daily, in the 21st percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00524 (52.4 pips), 0.89% of price. It has returned +1.75% over 5 days and -1.06% over 60 days.

=== NZD/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.58754  +1.255%   · price > all MAs; positioning net%OI -28.6% (0th pct — near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -28.6%))
     cross-signal: flow signals align NZD/USD up: daily %, 20d return
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-31, prior 2026-07-30)
    close       0.58754
    change      +0.00728  (+1.255%, +72.8 pips)
    gap         +0.00726  (+72.6 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-31)
    range       0.00381  (38.1 pips)
    close pos   64.8% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-31)
     20d MA     0.57862   price above by +1.54%
     50d MA     0.57907   price above by +1.46%
    200d MA     0.58234   price above by +0.89%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-31)
    20d stdev   0.510% daily ≈ 8.1% annualized (×√252)   (21st pct of own history, since 2003 (5842 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.86× (0.510% vs 0.596% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-31)
    ATR(14)    0.00524  (52.4 pips)
    ATR%        0.89%   (26th pct of own history, since 2003 (5848 obs))
    range/ATR   72.8%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-31)
    high        0.60933   (-3.58% from high)
    low         0.55842   (+5.21% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-31)
    RSI(14)     63.23   (86th pct of own history, since 2003 (5848 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-31)
     5d return  +1.75%
    20d return  +3.21%
    60d return  -1.06%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.9269%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.8375%
    tightening-2015  0.6352%
    ZIRP-2019        0.6132%
    tightening-2022  0.7299%
    easing-2024      0.5958%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-28)  (predates 2026-07-29 FOMC)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-04 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -30,027 contracts (net short NZD)
    net % OI    -28.6%
    net%OI range -28.6% … +28.5% (own 135w)
    w/w change  +1,059
  rate differential (NZD–USD policy)
    NZD (RBNZ_OCR)        2.50%  (set 2026-07-08, announced target)
    next RBNZ             2026-09-02  (33 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-07-30, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (47 days)
    differential    -1.13%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-31)
    vs DXY      -0.77
    vs S&P 500  +0.45
    vs DXY beta -1.12 (26w)