NZD/USD: positioning -28.6% (0th pct)

On 2026-08-03, NZD/USD closed at 0.58984, up 0.39% on the day. It trades at 61.7% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 65.65 is in the 90th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +3.37% in the 86th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -28.6% of open interest, in the 0th percentile of its own two-year range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.57958 / 0.57912 / 0.58242, with price +1.77% / +1.85% / +1.27% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.55842–0.60933; it closed 3.20% below the high and 5.63% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.512% daily, in the 22nd percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00519 (51.9 pips), 0.88% of price. It has returned +1.72% over 5 days and -0.87% over 60 days.

=== NZD/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.58984  +0.391%   · price > all MAs; positioning net%OI -28.6% (0th pct — near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -28.6%))
     cross-signal: flow signals align NZD/USD up: 20d return, daily %
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-03, prior 2026-07-31)
    close       0.58984
    change      +0.00230  (+0.391%, +23.0 pips)
    gap         +0.00220  (+22.0 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-03)
    range       0.00459  (45.9 pips)
    close pos   78.0% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-03)
     20d MA     0.57958   price above by +1.77%
     50d MA     0.57912   price above by +1.85%
    200d MA     0.58242   price above by +1.27%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 200d > 20d > 50d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-03)
    20d stdev   0.512% daily ≈ 8.1% annualized (×√252)   (22nd pct of own history, since 2003 (5843 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.86× (0.512% vs 0.596% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-03)
    ATR(14)    0.00519  (51.9 pips)
    ATR%        0.88%   (24th pct of own history, since 2003 (5849 obs))
    range/ATR   88.4%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-03)
    high        0.60933   (-3.20% from high)
    low         0.55842   (+5.63% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-03)
    RSI(14)     65.65   (90th pct of own history, since 2003 (5849 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-03)
     5d return  +1.72%
    20d return  +3.37%
    60d return  -0.87%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.9269%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.8375%
    tightening-2015  0.6352%
    ZIRP-2019        0.6132%
    tightening-2022  0.7299%
    easing-2024      0.5955%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-28)  (predates 2026-07-29 FOMC)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-04 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -30,027 contracts (net short NZD)
    net % OI    -28.6%
    net%OI range -28.6% … +28.5% (own 135w)
    w/w change  +1,059
  rate differential (NZD–USD policy)
    NZD (RBNZ_OCR)        2.50%  (set 2026-07-08, announced target)
    next RBNZ             2026-09-02  (30 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-07-31, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (44 days)
    differential    -1.13%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-03)
    vs DXY      -0.77
    vs S&P 500  +0.47
    vs DXY beta -1.07 (26w)