NZD/USD: positioning -28.6%

On 2026-08-06, NZD/USD closed at 0.58875, up 0.19% on the day. It trades at 59.6% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 62.29 is in the 84th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +3.00% in the 83rd percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -28.6% of open interest, at 0% of its own two-year positioning range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.58227 / 0.57919 / 0.58259, with price +1.11% / +1.65% / +1.06% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.55842–0.60933; it closed 3.38% below the high and 5.43% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.501% daily, in the 20th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00476 (47.6 pips), 0.81% of price. It has returned +1.46% over 5 days and -0.75% over 60 days.

=== NZD/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.58875  +0.191%   · price > all MAs; positioning net%OI -28.6% (near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -28.6%))
     cross-signal: flow signals align NZD/USD up: 20d return, daily %
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-06, prior 2026-08-05)
    close       0.58875
    change      +0.00112  (+0.191%, +11.2 pips)
    gap         +0.00103  (+10.3 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-06)
    range       0.00304  (30.4 pips)
    close pos   73.0% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-06)
     20d MA     0.58227   price above by +1.11%
     50d MA     0.57919   price above by +1.65%
    200d MA     0.58259   price above by +1.06%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 200d > 20d > 50d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-06)
    20d stdev   0.501% daily ≈ 8.0% annualized (×√252)   (20th pct of own history, since 2003 (5846 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.84× (0.501% vs 0.595% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-06)
    ATR(14)    0.00476  (47.6 pips)
    ATR%        0.81%   (15th pct of own history, since 2003 (5852 obs))
    range/ATR   63.8%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-06)
    high        0.60933   (-3.38% from high)
    low         0.55842   (+5.43% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-06)
    RSI(14)     62.29   (84th pct of own history, since 2003 (5852 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-06)
     5d return  +1.46%
    20d return  +3.00%
    60d return  -0.75%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.9269%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.8375%
    tightening-2015  0.6352%
    ZIRP-2019        0.6132%
    tightening-2022  0.7299%
    easing-2024      0.5946%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-28)  (predates 2026-07-29 FOMC)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-04 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -30,027 contracts (net short NZD)
    net % OI    -28.6%
    net%OI range -28.6% … +28.5% (own 135w)
    w/w change  +1,059
  rate differential (NZD–USD policy)
    NZD (RBNZ_OCR)        2.50%  (set 2026-07-08, announced target)
    next RBNZ             2026-09-02  (27 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-08-05, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (41 days)
    differential    -1.13%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-06)
    vs DXY      -0.78
    vs S&P 500  +0.46
    vs DXY beta -1.07 (26w)