NZD/USD: positioning -28.6%

On 2026-08-05, NZD/USD closed at 0.58763, up 0.16% on the day. It trades at 57.4% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 60.95 is in the 81st percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +3.52% in the 87th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -28.6% of open interest, at 0% of its own two-year positioning range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.58141 / 0.5792 / 0.58254, with price +1.07% / +1.46% / +0.87% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.55842–0.60933; it closed 3.56% below the high and 5.23% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.516% daily, in the 22nd percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00489 (48.9 pips), 0.83% of price. It has returned +1.63% over 5 days and -1.28% over 60 days.

=== NZD/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.58763  +0.159%   · price > all MAs; positioning net%OI -28.6% (near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -28.6%))
     cross-signal: flow signals align NZD/USD up: 20d return, daily %
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-05, prior 2026-08-04)
    close       0.58763
    change      +0.00093  (+0.159%, +9.3 pips)
    gap         +0.00093  (+9.3 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-05)
    range       0.00260  (26.0 pips)
    close pos   59.2% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-05)
     20d MA     0.58141   price above by +1.07%
     50d MA     0.57920   price above by +1.46%
    200d MA     0.58254   price above by +0.87%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 200d > 20d > 50d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-05)
    20d stdev   0.516% daily ≈ 8.2% annualized (×√252)   (22nd pct of own history, since 2003 (5845 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.87× (0.516% vs 0.595% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-05)
    ATR(14)    0.00489  (48.9 pips)
    ATR%        0.83%   (18th pct of own history, since 2003 (5851 obs))
    range/ATR   53.1%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-05)
    high        0.60933   (-3.56% from high)
    low         0.55842   (+5.23% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-05)
    RSI(14)     60.95   (81st pct of own history, since 2003 (5851 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-05)
     5d return  +1.63%
    20d return  +3.52%
    60d return  -1.28%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.9269%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.8375%
    tightening-2015  0.6352%
    ZIRP-2019        0.6132%
    tightening-2022  0.7299%
    easing-2024      0.5950%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-28)  (predates 2026-07-29 FOMC)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-04 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -30,027 contracts (net short NZD)
    net % OI    -28.6%
    net%OI range -28.6% … +28.5% (own 135w)
    w/w change  +1,059
  rate differential (NZD–USD policy)
    NZD (RBNZ_OCR)        2.50%  (set 2026-07-08, announced target)
    next RBNZ             2026-09-02  (28 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-08-04, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (42 days)
    differential    -1.13%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-05)
    vs DXY      -0.78
    vs S&P 500  +0.45
    vs DXY beta -1.07 (26w)