FX daily report for reference date 2026-08-05. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.
CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT (as of 2026-08-05, config order)
close day % RSI (pct) 52wk 20d ret (pct) pos net%OI (band)
EUR/USD 1.15324 +0.22% 59.9 (80th) 29.6% +1.13% (70th) -8.0% (0% of range)
GBP/USD 1.3451 +0.18% 55.5 (67th) 52.6% +0.76% (62nd) +15.4% (60% of range)
USD/JPY 157.692 +0.10% 25.7 (1st) 64.6% -2.88% (12th) -23.6% (23% of range)
USD/CHF 0.80912 -0.15% 49.8 (52nd) 80.3% +0.04% (53rd) -8.6% (54% of range)
AUD/USD 0.70467 +0.70% 58.0 (73rd) 73.2% +1.79% (74th) +12.0% (69% of range)
USD/CAD 1.40655 +0.14% 48.7 (45th) 76.1% -0.97% (31st) -27.5% (17% of range)
NZD/USD 0.58763 +0.16% 61.0 (81st) 57.4% +3.52% (87th) -28.6% (0% of range)
EUR/GBP 0.85735 +0.05% 54.5 (67th) 26.6% +0.37% (60th) +1.1% (100% of range)
EUR/HUF 360.092 -0.84% 52.2 (59th) 22.7% +1.98% (85th)
USD/HUF 312.733 -1.01% 47.0 (42nd) 27.1% +0.78% (60th)
GBP/HUF 420.5 -0.84% 50.8 (53rd) 29.8% +1.58% (71st)NOTABLE TODAY (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal) EUR/USD positioning net%OI -8.0% (near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)) · surprise 100 EUR/GBP positioning net%OI +1.1% (near top of own 135w range (band tops at +1.1%)) · surprise 100 NZD/USD positioning net%OI -28.6% (near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -28.6%)) · surprise 100 USD/JPY RSI(14) 25.74 (1st pct, since 1996 (7694 obs)) · surprise 98
market risk (VIX) (as of 2026-08-05) level 15.81 change -0.69 (-4.2%) (prior 2026-08-04) 1yr range 13.47 … 31.05 (252d) 1yr pctile 22nd pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY) (as of 2026-08-05) (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below) level 99.694 change -0.196 (-0.20%) (prior 2026-08-04) 1yr range 96.220 … 101.610 (252d) 1yr pctile 77th pctile (252d lookback) 200d MA 99.154 price above by +0.54%
DOLLAR CROWDING (weekly-return correlation to DXY, 26w; how much of the book is one dollar trade — async daily closes cap the magnitude) 6 of 11 pairs correlate |≥ 0.60| to DXY this week EUR/USD -0.85 GBP/USD -0.78 NZD/USD -0.78 USD/CHF +0.74 USD/HUF +0.71 USD/JPY +0.67 EUR/HUF +0.51 AUD/USD -0.51 USD/CAD +0.46 GBP/HUF +0.45 EUR/GBP -0.03
equity market (S&P 500) (as of 2026-08-05) level 7723.55 change -12.97 (-0.17%) (prior 2026-08-04) 1yr range 6299.19 … 7736.52 (252d) 1yr pctile 99th pctile (252d lookback) 200d MA 7039.69 price above by +9.71%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) === (days remaining from reference date 2026-08-05) >> RBNZ 2026-09-02 (28 days) · cross-link: NZD/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -28.6%)) >> ECB 2026-09-10 (36 days) · cross-link: EUR/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)), EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI near top of own 135w range (band tops at +1.1%)) >> Fed 2026-09-16 (42 days) · cross-link: EUR/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)), USD/JPY (RSI(14) 1st pct), NZD/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -28.6%)) >> BoE 2026-09-17 (43 days) · cross-link: EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI near top of own 135w range (band tops at +1.1%)) >> BoJ 2026-09-18 (44 days) · cross-link: USD/JPY (RSI(14) 1st pct)