On 2026-08-05, USD/JPY closed at 157.692, up 0.10% on the day. It trades at 64.6% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 25.74 is in the 1st percentile of its history since 1996, and its 20-day return of -2.88% in the 12th percentile. RSI below 30 is conventionally termed oversold. Leveraged-money positioning is net -23.6% of open interest, at 23% of its own two-year positioning range. It is trading below its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 161.924 / 161.293 / 157.976, with price -2.61% / -2.23% / -0.18% against them. Its 52-week range is 146.217–163.979; it closed 3.83% below the high and 7.85% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.595% daily, in the 56th percentile of its history since 1996. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 1.419 (141.9 pips), 0.90% of price. It has returned -3.77% over 5 days and +0.01% over 60 days.
=== USD/JPY (pip 0.01) ===
>> close 157.692 +0.103% · price < all MAs; RSI(14) 25.74 (1st pct, since 1996 (7694 obs))
cross-signal: flow signals split — daily % up / 20d return down
price & change (as of 2026-08-05, prior 2026-08-04)
close 157.692
change +0.163 (+0.103%, +16.3 pips)
gap +0.206 (+20.6 pips) (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
range (as of 2026-08-05)
range 0.561 (56.1 pips)
close pos 69.5% of range
moving averages (as of 2026-08-05)
20d MA 161.924 price below by -2.61%
50d MA 161.293 price below by -2.23%
200d MA 157.976 price below by -0.18%
price < all MAs
stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
volatility (as of 2026-08-05)
20d stdev 0.595% daily ≈ 9.4% annualized (×√252) (56th pct of own history, since 1996 (7688 obs))
vs easing-2024 avg 1.00× (0.595% vs 0.596% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-08-05)
ATR(14) 1.419 (141.9 pips)
ATR% 0.90% (49th pct of own history, since 1996 (7694 obs))
range/ATR 39.5%
52-week range (as of 2026-08-05)
high 163.979 (-3.83% from high)
low 146.217 (+7.85% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-08-05)
RSI(14) 25.74 (1st pct of own history, since 1996 (7694 obs))
returns (as of 2026-08-05)
5d return -3.77%
20d return -2.88%
60d return +0.01%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis 0.8804% (from 1996-10-30)
ZIRP-2009 0.6396%
tightening-2015 0.5829%
ZIRP-2019 0.4159%
tightening-2022 0.6795%
easing-2024 0.5959%
positioning (as of 2026-07-28) (predates 2026-07-29 FOMC)
next COT as of 2026-08-04 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net -101,990 contracts (net short JPY; = long USD in USD/JPY terms)
net % OI -23.6%
net%OI range -33.5% … +10.5% (own 135w)
w/w change -5,805
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-08-05)
vs DXY +0.67
vs S&P 500 -0.22
vs DXY beta +0.84 (26w)