On 2026-08-04, USD/JPY closed at 157.529, down 0.03% on the day. It trades at 63.7% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 24.21 is in the 1st percentile of its history since 1996, and its 20-day return of -2.81% in the 13th percentile. RSI below 30 is conventionally termed oversold. Leveraged-money positioning is net -23.6% of open interest, at 23% of its own two-year positioning range. It is trading below its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 162.157 / 161.324 / 157.953, with price -2.85% / -2.35% / -0.27% against them. Its 52-week range is 146.217–163.979; it closed 3.93% below the high and 7.74% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.597% daily, in the 57th percentile of its history since 1996. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 1.485 (148.5 pips), 0.94% of price. It has returned -3.81% over 5 days and +0.19% over 60 days.
=== USD/JPY (pip 0.01) ===
>> close 157.529 -0.034% · price < all MAs; RSI(14) 24.21 (1st pct, since 1996 (7693 obs))
price & change (as of 2026-08-04, prior 2026-08-03)
close 157.529
change -0.053 (-0.034%, -5.3 pips)
gap -0.043 (-4.3 pips) (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
range (as of 2026-08-04)
range 0.721 (72.1 pips)
close pos 41.3% of range
moving averages (as of 2026-08-04)
20d MA 162.157 price below by -2.85%
50d MA 161.324 price below by -2.35%
200d MA 157.953 price below by -0.27%
price < all MAs
stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
volatility (as of 2026-08-04)
20d stdev 0.597% daily ≈ 9.5% annualized (×√252) (57th pct of own history, since 1996 (7687 obs))
vs easing-2024 avg 1.00× (0.597% vs 0.596% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-08-04)
ATR(14) 1.485 (148.5 pips)
ATR% 0.94% (53rd pct of own history, since 1996 (7693 obs))
range/ATR 48.6%
52-week range (as of 2026-08-04)
high 163.979 (-3.93% from high)
low 146.217 (+7.74% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-08-04)
RSI(14) 24.21 (1st pct of own history, since 1996 (7693 obs))
returns (as of 2026-08-04)
5d return -3.81%
20d return -2.81%
60d return +0.19%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis 0.8804% (from 1996-10-30)
ZIRP-2009 0.6396%
tightening-2015 0.5829%
ZIRP-2019 0.4159%
tightening-2022 0.6795%
easing-2024 0.5963%
positioning (as of 2026-07-28) (predates 2026-07-29 FOMC)
next COT as of 2026-08-04 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net -101,990 contracts (net short JPY; = long USD in USD/JPY terms)
net % OI -23.6%
net%OI range -33.5% … +10.5% (own 135w)
w/w change -5,805
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-08-04)
vs DXY +0.65
vs S&P 500 -0.23
vs DXY beta +0.82 (26w)