FX daily report for reference date 2026-08-04. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.
CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT (as of 2026-08-04, config order)
close day % RSI (pct) 52wk 20d ret (pct) pos net%OI (band)
EUR/USD 1.15073 -0.32% 57.2 (73rd) 26.1% +0.57% (60th) -8.0% (0% of range)
GBP/USD 1.3427 -0.48% 53.8 (62nd) 49.7% +0.22% (53rd) +15.4% (60% of range)
USD/JPY 157.529 -0.03% 24.2 (1st) 63.7% -2.81% (13th) -23.6% (23% of range)
USD/CHF 0.81037 +0.42% 51.5 (57th) 82.5% +0.66% (63rd) -8.6% (54% of range)
AUD/USD 0.69976 -0.69% 51.4 (52nd) 67.6% +0.61% (58th) +12.0% (69% of range)
USD/CAD 1.40463 +0.24% 45.6 (36th) 73.6% -1.14% (28th) -27.5% (17% of range)
NZD/USD 0.5867 -0.53% 59.9 (78th) 55.5% +2.90% (82nd) -28.6% (0% of range)
EUR/GBP 0.85696 +0.15% 53.4 (64th) 25.6% +0.33% (59th) +1.1% (100% of range)
EUR/HUF 363.159 -0.10% 62.0 (85th) 28.7% +2.87% (92nd)
USD/HUF 315.917 +0.34% 55.4 (67th) 33.9% +2.30% (76th)
GBP/HUF 424.06 -0.19% 58.9 (77th) 35.8% +2.52% (82nd)CHANGES (vs prior session) USD/JPY crossed below 200d MA (2nd consecutive close below)
NOTABLE TODAY (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal) EUR/USD positioning net%OI -8.0% (near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)) · surprise 100 EUR/GBP positioning net%OI +1.1% (near top of own 135w range (band tops at +1.1%)) · surprise 100 NZD/USD positioning net%OI -28.6% (near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -28.6%)) · surprise 100 USD/JPY RSI(14) 24.21 (1st pct, since 1996 (7693 obs)) · surprise 98
market risk (VIX) (as of 2026-08-04) level 16.50 change +0.64 (+4.0%) (prior 2026-08-03) 1yr range 13.47 … 31.05 (252d) 1yr pctile 37th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY) (as of 2026-08-04) (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below) level 99.890 change -0.070 (-0.07%) (prior 2026-08-03) 1yr range 96.220 … 101.610 (252d) 1yr pctile 80th pctile (252d lookback) 200d MA 99.147 price above by +0.75%
DOLLAR CROWDING (weekly-return correlation to DXY, 26w; how much of the book is one dollar trade — async daily closes cap the magnitude) 6 of 11 pairs correlate |≥ 0.60| to DXY this week EUR/USD -0.85 GBP/USD -0.78 NZD/USD -0.78 USD/CHF +0.74 USD/HUF +0.70 USD/JPY +0.65 EUR/HUF +0.51 AUD/USD -0.51 USD/CAD +0.46 GBP/HUF +0.45 EUR/GBP -0.02
equity market (S&P 500) (as of 2026-08-04) level 7736.52 change +136.02 (+1.79%) (prior 2026-08-03) 1yr range 6299.19 … 7736.52 (252d) 1yr pctile 100th pctile (252d lookback) 200d MA 7034.22 price above by +9.98%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) === (days remaining from reference date 2026-08-04) >> RBNZ 2026-09-02 (29 days) · cross-link: NZD/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -28.6%)) >> ECB 2026-09-10 (37 days) · cross-link: EUR/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)), EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI near top of own 135w range (band tops at +1.1%)) >> Fed 2026-09-16 (43 days) · cross-link: EUR/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)), USD/JPY (RSI(14) 1st pct), NZD/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -28.6%)) >> BoE 2026-09-17 (44 days) · cross-link: EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI near top of own 135w range (band tops at +1.1%)) >> BoJ 2026-09-18 (45 days) · cross-link: USD/JPY (RSI(14) 1st pct)