NZD/USD: positioning -28.6%

On 2026-08-04, NZD/USD closed at 0.5867, down 0.53% on the day. It trades at 55.5% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 59.85 is in the 78th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +2.90% in the 82nd percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -28.6% of open interest, at 0% of its own two-year positioning range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.58041 / 0.57913 / 0.58248, with price +1.08% / +1.31% / +0.72% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.55842–0.60933; it closed 3.71% below the high and 5.06% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.533% daily, in the 26th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00507 (50.7 pips), 0.86% of price. It has returned +1.67% over 5 days and -1.65% over 60 days.

=== NZD/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.58670  -0.532%   · price > all MAs; positioning net%OI -28.6% (near bottom of own 135w range (band bottoms at -28.6%))
     cross-signal: flow signals split — 20d return up / daily % down
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-04, prior 2026-08-03)
    close       0.58670
    change      -0.00314  (-0.532%, -31.4 pips)
    gap         -0.00312  (-31.2 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-04)
    range       0.00321  (32.1 pips)
    close pos   12.1% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-04)
     20d MA     0.58041   price above by +1.08%
     50d MA     0.57913   price above by +1.31%
    200d MA     0.58248   price above by +0.72%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 200d > 20d > 50d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-04)
    20d stdev   0.533% daily ≈ 8.5% annualized (×√252)   (26th pct of own history, since 2003 (5844 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.90× (0.533% vs 0.595% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-04)
    ATR(14)    0.00507  (50.7 pips)
    ATR%        0.86%   (22nd pct of own history, since 2003 (5850 obs))
    range/ATR   63.3%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-04)
    high        0.60933   (-3.71% from high)
    low         0.55842   (+5.06% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-04)
    RSI(14)     59.85   (78th pct of own history, since 2003 (5850 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-04)
     5d return  +1.67%
    20d return  +2.90%
    60d return  -1.65%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.9269%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.8375%
    tightening-2015  0.6352%
    ZIRP-2019        0.6132%
    tightening-2022  0.7299%
    easing-2024      0.5954%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-28)  (predates 2026-07-29 FOMC)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-04 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -30,027 contracts (net short NZD)
    net % OI    -28.6%
    net%OI range -28.6% … +28.5% (own 135w)
    w/w change  +1,059
  rate differential (NZD–USD policy)
    NZD (RBNZ_OCR)        2.50%  (set 2026-07-08, announced target)
    next RBNZ             2026-09-02  (29 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-08-04, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (43 days)
    differential    -1.13%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-04)
    vs DXY      -0.78
    vs S&P 500  +0.44
    vs DXY beta -1.07 (26w)