On 2026-08-06, USD/JPY closed at 157.6, down 0.06% on the day. It trades at 64.1% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 25.43 is in the 1st percentile of its history since 1996, and its 20-day return of -3.04% in the 11th percentile. RSI below 30 is conventionally termed oversold. Leveraged-money positioning is net -23.6% of open interest, at 23% of its own two-year positioning range. It is trading below its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 161.677 / 161.253 / 158, with price -2.52% / -2.27% / -0.25% against them. Its 52-week range is 146.217–163.979; it closed 3.89% below the high and 7.79% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.592% daily, in the 56th percentile of its history since 1996. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 1.38 (138 pips), 0.88% of price. It has returned -3.49% over 5 days and -0.16% over 60 days.
=== USD/JPY (pip 0.01) ===
>> close 157.600 -0.058% · price < all MAs; RSI(14) 25.43 (1st pct, since 1996 (7695 obs))
cross-signal: flow signals align USD/JPY down: 20d return, daily %
price & change (as of 2026-08-06, prior 2026-08-05)
close 157.600
change -0.092 (-0.058%, -9.2 pips)
gap -0.028 (-2.8 pips)
range (as of 2026-08-06)
range 0.881 (88.1 pips)
close pos 0.1% of range
moving averages (as of 2026-08-06)
20d MA 161.677 price below by -2.52%
50d MA 161.253 price below by -2.27%
200d MA 158.000 price below by -0.25%
price < all MAs
stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
volatility (as of 2026-08-06)
20d stdev 0.592% daily ≈ 9.4% annualized (×√252) (56th pct of own history, since 1996 (7689 obs))
vs easing-2024 avg 0.99× (0.592% vs 0.595% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-08-06)
ATR(14) 1.380 (138.0 pips)
ATR% 0.88% (46th pct of own history, since 1996 (7695 obs))
range/ATR 63.8%
52-week range (as of 2026-08-06)
high 163.979 (-3.89% from high)
low 146.217 (+7.79% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-08-06)
RSI(14) 25.43 (1st pct of own history, since 1996 (7695 obs))
returns (as of 2026-08-06)
5d return -3.49%
20d return -3.04%
60d return -0.16%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis 0.8804% (from 1996-10-30)
ZIRP-2009 0.6396%
tightening-2015 0.5829%
ZIRP-2019 0.4159%
tightening-2022 0.6795%
easing-2024 0.5955%
positioning (as of 2026-07-28) (predates 2026-07-29 FOMC)
next COT as of 2026-08-04 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net -101,990 contracts (net short JPY; = long USD in USD/JPY terms)
net % OI -23.6%
net%OI range -33.5% … +10.5% (own 135w)
w/w change -5,805
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-08-06)
vs DXY +0.65
vs S&P 500 -0.22
vs DXY beta +0.81 (26w)