NZD/USD: positioning -29.7%

On 2026-08-10, NZD/USD closed at 0.5888, up 0.34% on the day. It trades at 59.7% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 61.14 is in the 81st percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +2.25% in the 77th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -29.7% of open interest, at 0% of its own two-year positioning range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.58344 / 0.57885 / 0.5827, with price +0.92% / +1.72% / +1.05% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.55842–0.60933; it closed 3.37% below the high and 5.44% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.488% daily, in the 17th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00462 (46.2 pips), 0.79% of price. It has returned -0.18% over 5 days and +0.95% over 60 days.

=== NZD/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.58880  +0.336%   · price > all MAs; positioning net%OI -29.7% (near bottom of own 136w range (band bottoms at -29.7%))
     cross-signal: flow signals align NZD/USD up: 20d return, daily %
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-10, prior 2026-08-07)
    close       0.58880
    change      +0.00197  (+0.336%, +19.7 pips)
    gap         +0.00192  (+19.2 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-10)
    range       0.00205  (20.5 pips)
    close pos   39.5% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-10)
     20d MA     0.58344   price above by +0.92%
     50d MA     0.57885   price above by +1.72%
    200d MA     0.58270   price above by +1.05%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 20d > 200d > 50d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-10)
    20d stdev   0.488% daily ≈ 7.7% annualized (×√252)   (17th pct of own history, since 2003 (5848 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.82× (0.488% vs 0.594% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-10)
    ATR(14)    0.00462  (46.2 pips)
    ATR%        0.79%   (13th pct of own history, since 2003 (5854 obs))
    range/ATR   44.3%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-10)
    high        0.60933   (-3.37% from high)
    low         0.55842   (+5.44% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-10)
    RSI(14)     61.14   (81st pct of own history, since 2003 (5854 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-10)
     5d return  -0.18%
    20d return  +2.25%
    60d return  +0.95%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.9269%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.8375%
    tightening-2015  0.6352%
    ZIRP-2019        0.6132%
    tightening-2022  0.7299%
    easing-2024      0.5940%
  positioning      (as of 2026-08-04)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-11 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -30,290 contracts (net short NZD)
    net % OI    -29.7%
    net%OI range -29.7% … +28.5% (own 136w)
    w/w change  -263
  rate differential (NZD–USD policy)
    NZD (RBNZ_OCR)        2.50%  (set 2026-07-08, announced target)
    next RBNZ             2026-09-02  (23 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-08-07, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (37 days)
    differential    -1.13%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-10)
    vs DXY      -0.76
    vs S&P 500  +0.51
    vs DXY beta -1.03 (26w)