NZD/USD: positioning -29.7%

On 2026-08-07, NZD/USD closed at 0.58683, down 0.33% on the day. It trades at 55.8% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 58.58 is in the 75th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +1.84% in the 72nd percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -29.7% of open interest, at 0% of its own two-year positioning range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.5828 / 0.57903 / 0.58264, with price +0.69% / +1.35% / +0.72% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.55842–0.60933; it closed 3.69% below the high and 5.09% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.486% daily, in the 17th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00473 (47.3 pips), 0.81% of price. It has returned -0.12% over 5 days and -0.60% over 60 days.

=== NZD/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.58683  -0.326%   · price > all MAs; positioning net%OI -29.7% (near bottom of own 136w range (band bottoms at -29.7%))
     cross-signal: flow signals split — 20d return up / daily % down
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-07, prior 2026-08-06)
    close       0.58683
    change      -0.00192  (-0.326%, -19.2 pips)
    gap         -0.00200  (-20.0 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-07)
    range       0.00436  (43.6 pips)
    close pos   11.7% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-07)
     20d MA     0.58280   price above by +0.69%
     50d MA     0.57903   price above by +1.35%
    200d MA     0.58264   price above by +0.72%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 20d > 200d > 50d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-07)
    20d stdev   0.486% daily ≈ 7.7% annualized (×√252)   (17th pct of own history, since 2003 (5847 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.82× (0.486% vs 0.594% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-07)
    ATR(14)    0.00473  (47.3 pips)
    ATR%        0.81%   (15th pct of own history, since 2003 (5853 obs))
    range/ATR   92.1%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-07)
    high        0.60933   (-3.69% from high)
    low         0.55842   (+5.09% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-07)
    RSI(14)     58.58   (75th pct of own history, since 2003 (5853 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-07)
     5d return  -0.12%
    20d return  +1.84%
    60d return  -0.60%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.9269%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.8375%
    tightening-2015  0.6352%
    ZIRP-2019        0.6132%
    tightening-2022  0.7299%
    easing-2024      0.5943%
  positioning      (as of 2026-08-04)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-11 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -30,290 contracts (net short NZD)
    net % OI    -29.7%
    net%OI range -29.7% … +28.5% (own 136w)
    w/w change  -263
  rate differential (NZD–USD policy)
    NZD (RBNZ_OCR)        2.50%  (set 2026-07-08, announced target)
    next RBNZ             2026-09-02  (26 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-08-06, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (40 days)
    differential    -1.13%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-07)
    vs DXY      -0.77
    vs S&P 500  +0.43
    vs DXY beta -1.07 (26w)