On 2026-08-10, USD/JPY closed at 157.891, down 0.33% on the day. It trades at 65.7% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 30.89 is in the 4th percentile of its history since 1996, and its 20-day return of -2.46% in the 16th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -14.5% of open interest, at 43% of its own two-year positioning range. It is trading below its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 161.28 / 161.207 / 158.06, with price -2.10% / -2.06% / -0.11% against them. Its 52-week range is 146.217–163.979; it closed 3.71% below the high and 7.98% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.611% daily, in the 59th percentile of its history since 1996. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 1.39 (139 pips), 0.88% of price. It has returned +0.20% over 5 days and -0.60% over 60 days.
=== USD/JPY (pip 0.01) ===
>> close 157.891 -0.327% · price < all MAs; RSI(14) 30.89 (4th pct, since 1996 (7697 obs))
cross-signal: flow signals align USD/JPY down: 20d return, daily %
price & change (as of 2026-08-10, prior 2026-08-07)
close 157.891
change -0.518 (-0.327%, -51.8 pips)
gap -0.509 (-50.9 pips) (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
range (as of 2026-08-10)
range 1.197 (119.7 pips)
close pos 3.5% of range
moving averages (as of 2026-08-10)
20d MA 161.280 price below by -2.10%
50d MA 161.207 price below by -2.06%
200d MA 158.060 price below by -0.11%
price < all MAs
stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
volatility (as of 2026-08-10)
20d stdev 0.611% daily ≈ 9.7% annualized (×√252) (59th pct of own history, since 1996 (7691 obs))
vs easing-2024 avg 1.03× (0.611% vs 0.595% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-08-10)
ATR(14) 1.390 (139.0 pips)
ATR% 0.88% (46th pct of own history, since 1996 (7697 obs))
range/ATR 86.1%
52-week range (as of 2026-08-10)
high 163.979 (-3.71% from high)
low 146.217 (+7.98% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-08-10)
RSI(14) 30.89 (4th pct of own history, since 1996 (7697 obs))
returns (as of 2026-08-10)
5d return +0.20%
20d return -2.46%
60d return -0.60%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis 0.8804% (from 1996-10-30)
ZIRP-2009 0.6396%
tightening-2015 0.5829%
ZIRP-2019 0.4159%
tightening-2022 0.6795%
easing-2024 0.5950%
positioning (as of 2026-08-04)
next COT as of 2026-08-11 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net -60,825 contracts (net short JPY; = long USD in USD/JPY terms)
net % OI -14.5%
net%OI range -33.5% … +10.5% (own 136w)
w/w change +41,165
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-08-10)
vs DXY +0.69
vs S&P 500 -0.36
vs DXY beta +0.74 (26w)